Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications.
Week 4 was my best week against the spread so far this season, as I finished 11-5 ATS and 2-1 in my locks of the week. As a bonus to top things off, I also finished at a very satisfying 12-4 clip head to head.
Survivor has also been going well for me thus far, and with 1/4 of the season already in the books, I hope to continue that winning trend.
The three teams that made me feel the happiest in week 4 were the Panthers (+6.5), Niners (+6.5) and Giants (+0.5) … those were some exciting covers to hit the nail on the head with as they came down to the wire.
My biggest disappointment was the Steelers (+4.5) failing to cover in Houston, and it’s not like Pittsburgh didn’t have their chances either.
With that said…
Onto the breakdown!
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 4 BREKADOWN
WEEK 4 ATS: 11-5
WEEK 4 LOCKS ATS: 2-1
WEEK 4 H2H: 12-4
WEEK 4 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: WIN (Packers over Broncos)
THIS SEASON ATS: 34-30
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 9-3
THIS SEASON H2H: 44-20
H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Chargers (Week 1, Win)
Lions (Week 2, Win)
Steelers (Week 3, Win)
Packers (Week 4, Win)
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 5 PICKS
Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().
SUNDAY:
*H2H SURVIVOR PICK / LOCK IT UP: NY GIANTS (-9.5) over Seattle — Sometimes you just have to go with the most obvious choice. I just don’t see how the Seahawks can muster up any points in this spot. Giants win 24-0
MINNESOTA (-2.5) over Arizona — The Vikings sure have been brutal when it comes to blowing leads and shooting themselves in the foot. I actually hate that they are favored here against Arizona, but I do think that if Minnesota is going to win any one game this season, it will have to be at home against a non-division opponent that also isn’t that particularly good. Vikings win 20-16
*LOCK IT UP: CAROLINA (+5.5) over New Orleans — Cam Newton is a backdoor covering machine! I see the Saints winning a very close, very entertaining shootout. Saints win 31-27
BUFFALO (+2.5) over Philadelphia — Even though the Eagles have more big name talent, I think it’s fair to say that the Bills are the better TEAM in this matchup at this point in time. You are what your record says you are, right? Bills win 28-24
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) over Kansas City — This is the week the desperate Colts will secure their first — and possibly only — win of the year. Colts win 21-12
JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Cincinnati — This game could easily tilt in the Bengals favor, but I have that feeling that the Jaguars will (hopefully) simplify their game plan at home and just run, run, run. Jags do just enough. Jaguars win 19-13
Tennessee (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH — While the Steelers keep hurting themselves on seemingly every offensive drive, the Titans are quietly sitting pretty at 3-1. Not only am I taking the 3.5 points here, I am selecting the more smoothly running Titans outright on the road in my gut feeling pick of the week. Titans win 26-24
*LOCK IT UP: Oakland (+6.5) over HOUSTON — The Raiders were expectedly blown out up in New England last week, but I love Oakland to pick themselves up by their bootstraps and bounce back here against Houston. The Texans will win, but the Raiders will fight Houston tooth and nail and cover as a result. Texans win 24-20
Tampa Bay (+3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO — I loved the Niners as underdogs in Philly last week and I like SF head to head here at home. However, I don’t like them as 3.5-point favorites against a decent Tampa team. Niners win 24-21
NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) over NY Jets — This is THE revenge game for the Patriots from last year’s home playoff loss, and this injury riddled, offensively challenged and already reeling Jets team is going to pay the price. Patriots win 38-13
San Diego (-3.5) over DENVER — The Broncos had an impossible task at Green Bay last week. They could certainly play the Chargers relatively close here at home, but I don’t think it will be close enough. Chargers win 23-14
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
ATLANTA (+5.5) over Green Bay — This is going to be one of those games where we look up and don’t know how the score ended up being even remotely close. The Packers dominate all night but Atlanta will manage to make it a competitive contest at home. Packers win 28-24
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
DETROIT (-5.5) over Chicago — Anyone else think Jay Cutler might not last the first quarter? The Lions continue their upwards climb in what will be a coming out party for Detroit on the national Monday Night Football stage. Lions win 31-17
That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.
See you next week – CB.
