Sliced Spread: 2011 NFL Football Week 10 Picks and Predictions
by CB on November 10, 2011

Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications.

It was very nice to get back on track in Week 9 as I notched a sterling 3-0 record against the spread in my locks of the week and finished 9-5 both ATS and head to head.

As a New York Jets fan, I was also thrilled to see my favorite team prove me wrong by trouncing the Bills (-1.5) up in Buffalo. Then, to have the Giants (+9.5) follow that up in the late afternoon with a big win both ATS and H2H on the road against the Patriots was the icing on the cake that now sees the AFC East deadlocked in a three-way tie for first place.

Oh, and as we flash forward to this week’s slate of games, the Jets and Patriots just happen to square off against each other on what should be an intense battle on Sunday night. More on that in a minute or two as we move…

Onto the breakdown!

SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 9 BREKADOWN

WEEK 9 ATS: 9-5
WEEK 9 LOCKS ATS: 3-0

WEEK 9 H2H: 8-6
WEEK 9 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: WIN (Texans over Browns)

THIS SEASON ATS: 71-59
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 17-10

THIS SEASON H2H: 87-43

H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Chargers (Week 1, Win)
Lions (Week 2, Win)
Steelers (Week 3, Win)
Packers (Week 4, Win)
Giants (Week 5, Loss)
Raiders (Week 6, Win)
Cowboys (Week 7, Win)
Niners (Week 8, Win)
Texans (Week 9, Win) 

SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 10 PICKS

Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SAN DIEGO (-7.5) over Oakland — Thursday night football is back, which for me entails finding a place to go out to watch these games since I do not get the NFL Network. As for this Chargers – Raiders showdown, I am taking San Diego here at home with Darren McFadden still banged up for Oakland and the Chargers’ offense clicking pretty well right now. Chargers win 31-17

SUNDAY:

DALLAS (-5.5) over Buffalo — I can’t figure this one out completely, but I do think Dallas is simply playing better right now, while the Bills are cooling off considerably after a hot start. Not that Buffalo can’t win in Dallas … they just won’t this week. Cowboys win 27-20

*H2H SURVIVOR PICK: PHILADELPHIA (-12.5) over Arizona — The Eagles will be in desperation mode once more, so they will play with urgency against an inferior Cardinals team all game long. Eagles win 35-13

TAMPA BAY (+2.5) over Houston: In my gut feeling pick of the week, Tampa stands tall at home and upends a Texans’ team will have a classic let-down on the road against a non-division opponent. Bucs win 24-21

New Orleans (-0.5) over ATLANTA — I almost locked this game up, but the Saints haven’t been too cooperative with me this season whenever I do jump on the Drew Brees bandwagon. I still think New Orleans wins, but it won’t be easy. Saints win 31-24

CAROLINA (-3.5) over Tennessee — The Panthers have been high on covers but low on actual wins, so this is an interesting game from that standpoint. At the end of the day, I think Carolina will man up at home and win over an uneven Titans team, so… Panthers win 28-19

Jacksonville (-2.5) over INDIANAPOLIS — I was very tempted to take the Colts until I remembered that the Jaguars have a stout enough defense to hold this offensively challenged / winless Indy team. Jags win 20-6

MIAMI (-4.5) over Washington — Miami finally did something productive by pounding the Chiefs last week, and while I don’t really like them as favorites against anyone, Washington has been brutal enough for me to take a shot on the Dolphins at home. Dolphins win 26-17

Pittsburgh (-2.5) over CINCINNATI — The Bengals deserve all the credit in the world for hanging tough with the Steelers and Ravens this season. I just have a feeling that the Steelers’ veteran defense wrestles this one away from this upstart Cincy team. That, and Big Ben is more proven than Andy Dalton in big games, and still better than him at this point. Steelers win 30-21

St. Louis (+2.5) over CLEVELAND — What a horrible way to lose a cover last week (blocked FG followed by a special teams TD in OT), and for the Rams, what an awful way to lose a game. However, they should have no trouble picking up the pace in Cleveland, and I’d be shocked if St. Louis didn’t rebound here and win outright. Rams win 28-14

Denver (+3.5) over KANSAS CITY — I KNEW the Broncos were going to stonewall the Raiders last week, and I’m looking for more of the same from Denver in Kansas City. At the very least, the Tim Tebow keeps things close and interesting. Broncos win 21-20

*LOCK IT UP: Baltimore (-6.5) over SEATTLE — Joe Flacco got back on track last week, and even though this could be a trap game I don’t see the Ravens letting up, especially on defense. Ravens win 38-9

*LOCK IT UP: CHICAGO (-2.5) over Detroit — The Bears did me proud on Monday night by beating up on the Eagles and leaving Philly with a huge win. I think they win another big game here on their home turf, while the Lions continue to fall back down to earth just a little bit more. Bears win 29-21

*LOCK IT UP: NY Giants (+3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO — When the Giants made their impossible improbable Super Bowl run, they did it by becoming tried and tested road warriors. The Niners are a good enough team this season to warrant being favorites, but they are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. Eli Manning, after all, is now better than Tom Brady :) Giants win 24-20

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

New England (+1.5) over NY JETS — This one is going to be fun. As a Jets fan, I really wanted to pick them to win, and they definitely have the tools on offense to shred the Patriots’ secondary. However, there are two reasons why I was swayed in the other direction: 1) the Patriots are coming off a loss and tend to rebound in those situations; and 2) I don’t think I’ve ever bet against Tom Brady as an underdog. As a result, and if I’m going with my head over my heart… Patriots win 24-16

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

GREEN BAY (-13.5) over Minnesota — Green Bay certainly knows how to light up a scoreboard, and Aaron Rodgers certainly knows how to cover spreads. Packers win 44-21

That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.

See you next week – CB.



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