We are now on the eve of what is always my favorite time of any SURVIVOR season: the merge!
Yes, the previews have shown it….this week, Yasur and Lopevi will be merging into one new tribe.
Before I give a rundown, let me just say one thing briefly: I think John K. made the right move. Chad will gain sympathy votes if he makes it to the Jury. The problem was he didn’t do enough work around camp and he tried to make his move too late and relied too heavily on winning Immunity challenges. His strategy should have begun on day one, and he waited until they lost.
This week, I’m just going to run down each person left out of the ten, and rate how I think they’ll do in a merge situation.
AMI– She’s a strong contender. Even though I’d love to see her do well and win, I have a bad feeling that she might go home as early as this week. She had a lot of power on Yasur, and that definitely turned Rory off. He’s already labeled her as first on his hit list. She’s in some trouble, and she’s my pick to go this week, sadly.
SCOUT– She did it. She actually did it. Much to my surprise, she has made the merge. Now, she can begin to make her way to the end of the game Kim J. style. She no longer has to worry about physical liability…that now serves as an advantage. She will go far.
CHAD– He will not win. Well, I won’t say that. The chances of him winning are very slim, and for all the reasons JK tried to put him up on the chopping block last week. He’s an obvious sympathy vote if he gets to the Final Two, and when the million dollars really starts pushing to the forefronts of everybody’s minds, he’ll find himself in a lot of trouble.
RORY– It will be interesting to see what he does in the new tribe. He obviously was not welcomed into the Yasur alliance, so he’ll probably go back with the guys and try to form an alliance against Ami, whom he proclaimed as #1 on his hit list. He could have a lot more influence at this stage of the game than I would have thought week 2. He should be around for a little while, although I don’t see Final Four in his future.
JULIE– She’s still using the sex appeal as a weapon. Will it work? Well, Sarge sure is drooling all over it. Chris has been turned off, however, viewing that for the strategic (not to mention previously successful) style of gameplay. I think she will run back with the ladies and try to take one of the men out at the first merge vote.
TWILA– She’s in the same boat as Julie, and she has been suckered into believing that Julie was also approached by the guys. (Excellent move on Julie’s part by the way.) So, I think she will also go back to the ladies, at first, at least, in fear that Sarge will stab her in the back.
LEA– Of all the guys left, he is probably the one the girls will try and target first if they do indeed hook back up. I think he gave Twila the impression he was in charge of the main guy alliance, and now that she could be running scared, he could easily be the target. I don’t think he has too much time in Vanuatu left. If it’s not Ami this week, it will probably be him, depending on which alliance comes out on top.
CHRIS– My current pick for the winner. He has consistently proven to have a good strategic head on his shoulders, and he doesn’t seem to suffer any ill effects from his double-dealing. He engineered the original Fat Five alliance, he kept JK in the dark, and he just gives me the feel that he has the potential to become a true power player in an individual strategic game, and still win Jury votes in the end. The one to beat at the moment.
LEANN– She also will make it a long way. At this point, if another female wins, it will probably be her. She’s far enough under the radar not to be a major early target for votes, and when the gender lines begin to fade, I think she’s be one of the first ones in a new alliance. A lot of potential.
ELIZA– She now has the opportunity for a fresh start. She had a bumpy first half of the game, and if she wants to be around in the Final Six, Five, or even Four, she needs to take full advantage of the opportunity she has to begin anew. I still don’t see her winning, but I also don’t see an immediate departure.
So, there you go. Overall, at the beginning of this second phase to the game, I predict that the sexes will split right down the middle for the first couple of votes. But then, gender lines will start to blur, and then the game if officially on.
I can’t wait.
Here are the two sides:
GUYS
Chad, Chris, Rory, Lea
GIRLS
Ami, Scout, Twila, Eliza, Leann, Julie
The girls have a clear advantage, so I take back my Ami prediction from earlier.
PREDICTION FOR BOOT: Lea
SOLE SURVIVOR PICK: Chris
“See” you next week!
