I’ve been off for a few weeks, and they weren’t the kindest.
While I was gone I felt heartbreak as Brett Favre provided the mistake the New York Giants needed to advance to the Super Bowl after winning three games I was sure they were going to lose.
On the other side, the New England Patriots moved to 18-0 with a close, but not too close win over San Diego in the AFC title game. Tom Brady tweaked his ankle a bit in what became an overblown story in the bye week.
Even without Brady, it’s unlikely that New England will blow it with one win standing between them and perfection. Or will they be another victim in this year full of shocking upsets?
How the Patriots can win
I think a more proper question would be how couldn’t the Patriots win? After eighteen straight wins, that would be the mindset of anyone previewing a Patriots game, let alone the Super Bowl. But since I have to actually give some ways I will. First and foremost: let Tom Brady be Tom Brady. When it comes to variety in play calling and great drives, Tom’s the man this year. Keeping the Giants offense off the field and frustrating their defense will result in an early lead and the Giants aren’t the best at playing catch-up if the lead gets to double digits—even if that’s only 10.
Giving the ball to Lawrence Maroney about 20 times did the trick with Jacksonville and if the Pats have a lead late, forget about the flash of Randy Moss and Tom Brady guiding the offense and let the workhorses do the dirty work to seal the deal.
If Peyton has had the kind of luck he’s had against New England, what chance does Eli have? That is the main question that the Patriots defense has to answer quickly and effectively Sunday. Whenever Peyton has gotten frustrated early against the Pats, he’s never recovered. Eli has had that problem his entire career and if you look at the playoff wins and the first meeting with New England in December, Eli got into a groove early and was able to maintain throughout. With New England’s defense there are plenty of options here: an early interception or two, constant pressure, a streak of three and out’s, etc. But they have to make it happen. If Eli can get into the kind of groove he was in against New England a month ago, he could make this a game.
How the Giants can win
The Giants have to beat the Patriots; the Patriots don’t have to beat the Giants on Sunday. If that sounds confusing, let me explain: the Patriots can win on sheer force of will and proved that with the Baltimore win and their win over the Giants in December. In that game, they didn’t really beat New York because they needed a 60+-yard touchdown from Randy Moss to go ahead. That touchdown and the winning drive against Baltimore are examples of how New England just finds a way to win even if they aren’t really beating their opponents.
While Eli Manning has to lead his team on Sunday, he doesn’t have to do the bulk of the work. In the Green Bay game, Brandon Jacobs helped the Giants rush for over 100 yards more than Green Bay; in that same game Plaxico Burress made Al Harris look like an amateur to the tune of eleven catches. What I’m saying is that Eli has options and should at least look to those options early because that will set a tempo if the Giants have just as random and effective a play calling strategy as the Pats.
If the Giants defense doesn’t get to Tom Brady, it won’t matter what the Giants’ offense does. Jeff Garcia, Tony Romo, and Brett Favre have all been victims of the Giants’ defense in the playoffs as none of them had the games we’re accustomed to seeing out of them when they faced New York. Even Brady didn’t find his groove until the second half and that will be unacceptable in the Super Bowl. An early turnover is what New York should shoot for as striking first in any aspect defensively would give added confidence to the Giants defense and if Brady is taken out of his element, that could leave the Giants offense with some breathing room switching the pressure from New York to New England.
MY PREDICTION
I wrote in my first Wild Weekends column that the Pats were my Super Bowl pick for this season. Well, why stop thinking that now? The fact that they’ve gone unbeaten only proves how vital those off-season transactions were and why this team simply can’t lose this year. Yes, New York got close in December and they haven’t stopped rolling since, but the Pats have proven to be a team that can adapt and its unlikely they’ll turn in a similar performance twice. I can’t see any reason why New England won’t etch their names into history and it would be fitting and a tiny bit of salvation to see the Year of the Upset end with a team achieving the impossible.
PATRIOTS 34, GIANTS 17
