After each fight card, it’s worth examining what might be next for the winners and losers. It’s even more appropriate since we are dealing with Affliction, an upstart promotion that may or may not be around in another six months. Let’s take a look at the three big winners and losers:
Fedor Emelianenko vs. Andre Arlovski
Affliction lives and dies by Fedor. His first two victims, Sylvia and Arlovski, were high profile opponents. That boded well for Affliction and their PPV numbers but now the organization is running out of viable options.
The obvious next fight for Fedor would be against Josh Barnett. But Barnet doesn’t really want to fight Fedor. The two have developed a good friendship over the years and some men just don’t like fighting their friends. Anderson Silva won’t commitment to moving up to 205 pounds because he feels his friend Lyoto Machida is the rightful heir to the light heavyweight title.
Despite that, Barnett recently said: “We would fight each other, I’m sure of it, because we’re professionals,” said Barnett. “If it can happen, than it’ll happen. We’re just both out there trying to be the best fighters we can be.”
If Affliction forces Barnett’s hand he will fight Fedor. And Fedor will fight anyone. But the big question is, “Will this fight generate enough interest to make it worth putting on.” Hardcore fans have wanted to see this fight for years; since they were fighting in the PRIDE organization.
But mainstream interest would likely drop off noticeably since Barnett has less name recognition then both Andre Arlovski or Tim Sylvia – both former UFC heavyweight champions.
Even more important to ask, “Will Affliction even put on another fight card.” President Tom Atencio has remained adamant that the upstart organization will put on several shows in 2009 but he is paid to remain optimistic. The only thing that will realistically keep Affliction afloat would be financial support from Donald Trump – which they very well may be getting.
As for Arlovski, he has no clear future opponent. Affliction could put him up against hard-hitting Gilbert Yvel, who was outclassed on the ground by Josh Barnett. They could give us what would essentially be a boxing match with Paul Buentello, who picked apart Fedor’s protégé Kirill Sidelnikov last night. Or, if they wanted to maximize PPV buys, they could put together Andrei Arlovski vs. Tim Sylvia IV.
Another question mark for Arlovski is his desire to start a boxing career. After the devastating KO loss to Fedor, he may prefer to hang up the four ounce gloves for ones with a little bit more padding. Look for his glass chin to follow him wherever he goes.
Prediction: Ultimately, I think Affliction will quit putting on fight cards sometime in 2009. This is not because their first two shows haven’t been entertaining. But I think PPV numbers for any future shows will plummet as they run out of marketable match ups.
By years end, look for Fedor to be fighting on Dream’s New Years Eve show. Arlovski is harder to figure out. I think re signing with the UFC could be his best move, but Dana might see him as damaged goods right now. I will go out on a limb and say Arlovski steps away from MMA for awhile and pursues his boxing coach under Freddie Roaches’ tutelage.
Renato Sobral vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
This was an impressive win for Sobral. He beat Sokoudjou in the same impressive fashion that Lyoto Machida and Luis Cane were able to. Sokoudjou is becoming a gatekeeper to the light heavyweight division’s Top 10.
If Sobral fights for Affliction again, a fight with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira -who also won at Day of Reckoning – would be a great fight between the two best light heavyweights not fighting for the UFC. Sobral also fights for Strikeforce so look for him to fight for that organization in 2009…although they don’t appear to have any high-profile opponents for Sobral to fight.
Ultimately, Sobral may like to work his way back into the good graces of Dana White. Sobral last fought in the octagon at UFC 74, back in 2007. He was fined by the N.S.A.C and later released by the UFC for holding on to anaconda choke to long over his opponent David Heath.
As for Sokoudjou, it is likely time for him to reevaluate his career. He got off to a hot start in the now defunct PRIDE organization but has lost his last three fights, albeit against stiff competition. I would like to see the talented young fighter fight for a smaller organization and build his career back up.
Vitor Belfort vs. Matt Lindland
This was a huge win for Belfort. He looks phenomenal since cutting to 185 pounds and has gone 2-0 at that weight. Lindland was considered by most to be a top 10 middleweight and Affliction doesn’t really have any fighters signed that make sense for Belfort, and his new found stock.
A fight between Belfort and DREAM middleweight champion Gegard Mousasi was originally rumored for Day of Reckoning. But the fight never came together and Mousasi ended up fighting a K-1 fight on DREAM’s New Years Eve show. Perhaps Affliction can make this fight happen and put it on their third fight card.
Ultimately, I would like to see Belfort finish his career with the UFC. He started his career there as a 19 year old phenom, and while he had some success, he never lived up to the expectations that people had for him. It seems appropriate that his new found success would give him another chance. Tito Ortiz said he would like to see Belfort fight current champion, Anderson Silva.
As for Lindland, the loss is a hard one. Not only was the knock out he sustained one of the worst in MMA history; he doesn’t seem to have a clear path in front of him. If Affliction stays in business, they can surely find him someone for Lindland to fight. Just not a high profile fight.
Lindland likely doesn’t have a home in the UFC so perhaps he can also fight some work with Strikeforce to supplement things. After that vicious KO, don’t be surprised if Lindland takes an extended break from MMA action.
