UFC WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
GEORGES ST. PIERRE VS. B.J. PENN
I’m not the biggest fan of either of these guys. It’s certainly not a fighting skills issue, because they are two of the top five fighters in the world regardless of weight class. I think B.J. Penn is disgusting because he licks the blood of his opponent off his glove, which almost always makes me want to throw up in my mouth. I dislike St. Pierre because it’s always uncomfortable watching him sprawl around in tiny spandex shorts; those things should be outlawed by every single athletic commission in the world. I mean, why would you choose to wear spandex when fight shorts are perfectly comfortable?
In all seriousness, this is a landmark fight with two of the best in the world colliding in their prime. For all the (warranted) talk about how big Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir is going to be, it doesn’t hold a candle to this fight from the perspective of a pure sporting contest. While it won’t do the same kind of PPV buys that Lesnar/Mir will do, it will do far more to advance the sport aspect of mixed martial arts than that fight could ever hope to do.
Outside of a few minutes with Matt Serra, Georges St. Pierre has been absolutely perfect over the past few years. He’s fought top competition time and time again, and he’s handily beaten that very same top competition time and time again. He’s the prototype of the next generation of fighters, the mold that will be used time and time again to create the superstar athletic fighters of the future. He’s well-versed in every single aspect of the fight game, with precision striking and a wrestling game that is shockingly good for someone with no real amateur experience. He’s also a big welterweight and will probably step into the cage at around 183 pounds, if not heavier.
But B.J. Penn isn’t nicknamed “The Prodigy” for giggles. Many consider Penn to be the best fighter in the world, and for good reason. He’s a jiu-jitsu world champion, a precision striker and an outstanding wrestler. When he’s focused, he can destroy anyone in his path, as witnessed in his 2008 wins over Joe Stevenson and former lightweight champion Sean Sherk. There’s nobody in the lightweight division, not even the very good Kenny Florian, who is remotely close to Penn’s skill level.
Penn is going to give up a lot of weight to St. Pierre, and his cardio is going to be a question mark. This isn’t the ripped and conditioned Penn from the lightweight division; it’s a heavier and likely slower Penn who put on weight to make this fight happen. As I mentioned before, St. Pierre is going to be a lot heavier coming into the cage, and since that’s his normal weight his cardio will be excellent.
St. Pierre is the favorite to win this fight. He’s the guy most experts are picking, and for good reason. Everything seems to be going in his favor, putting Penn into an unusual (for him, at least) underdog role.
I’m going against the grain, though. I think Penn is ready for this fight He’s more focused than ever, and I believe he’s going to dominate St. Pierre standing and on the ground. This is a fight where legends will be created, and I’m just not willing to bet against a focused, determined B.J. Penn.
Prediction: B.J. Penn by submission, round two
LYOTO MACHIDA VS. THIAGO SILVA
My focus during this fight will be on Dana White. Why? Because it’ll be far more interesting to watch Dana fighting the urge to outright cheer for Silva to beat Machida than the actual fight in the cage will be.
Don’t get me wrong; Lyoto Machida is one of the best light heavyweights walking the earth. His skills are incredibly unique and, for the hardcore mixed martial arts fan, he’s an absolute joy to watch. In terms of the regular fanbase, though, he’s Matt Lindland-boring — and they are the ones paying the bills. Dana has promised that Lyoto will get a title shot if he beats Silva, but I’m willing to bet that Dana would love nothing more than to see Thiago end Machida’s unbeaten streak.
It’s not going to happen, though. Thiago Silva is a dangerous and exciting fighter, but his skills are nowhere near complete enough to solve the Machida puzzle. Lyoto might be “elusive” (code for “boring”), but when he decides to take the fight to you, he’s tough to avoid. He has pinpoint striking accuracy from the modified forward karate stance, complete control when avoiding takedowns, and he’s lethal on the ground. Silva might be brave enough to try and take the fight to Machida, but The Dragon is an expert at avoiding any kind of damage while landing crucial points from strikes.
Lyoto likes to take fights to completion, but I’m calling for something completely different here. I think Silva will try to press the action early on to a degree where Machida can exploit his carelessness and finish him.
Prediction: Lyoto Machida by TKO, round one
STEPHAN BONNAR VS. JON JONES
I believe Jon Jones has been training in mixed martial arts for just over a year, which makes the fact that he’s already in the UFC an impressive feat indeed. Jones made his UFC debut in August at UFC 87 after UFC matchmaker Joe Silva saw his victory over Moyses Gabin in July. Jones used good technical striking to outpoint Andre Gusmao and earn a decision victory.
I don’t really need to cover Stephan Bonnar. He’s an integral part of the UFC’s meteoric rise in popularity, as it was his thrilling fight with Forrest Griffin at the conclusion of season one of The Ultimate Fighter that marked the beginning of that ascent. Griffin has gone on to become one of the most popular fighters in the game today (even capturing the light heavyweight championship for a brief period), but Bonnar has never been able to capture that same kind of audience. He’s the Jannety to Griffin’s Michaels.
Both fighters have good striking skills, and I expect this to be a standup war that Bonnar will likely win on points.
Prediction: Stephan Bonnar by decision
KARO PARISYAN VS. DONG HYUN KIM
The main thing to look out for in this fight is to see if the fight happens at all. Karo Parisyan has some major mental issues; he was scheduled to fight Yoshiyuki Yoshida at UFC 88, but withdrew from the fight claiming a back injury. My sources have told me that Karo’s back wasn’t injured at all, that he was suffering from some type of nervous breakdown in the days leading up to the fight, and that the back injury was a story put out by Zuffa to cover up the fact that Parisyan was not mentally fit to compete.
Dong Hyun Kim may have an 11-1 record, but he hasn’t faced true top-shelf competition. Parisyan poses the biggest challenge of his career, and there’s no real way to know how Kim will respond when faced with the kind of skills Parisyan can bring to the cage.
If Karo is mentally fit, he should secure an easy victory over Kim. If he’s not mentally fit and the fight still happens, we could see an upset that will relegate Karo to the preliminary card for some time.
NATE DIAZ VS. CLAY GUIDA
This right here is what we call Fight Of The Night Material. Clay Guida never scores victories over good opponents, but he continually turns in thrilling performances in which he goes after his opponent with little regard for his own safety. His wild, fast-paced fighting style has earned him main card spots and fan appreciation regardless of his win-loss record, which is proof positive that the only thing that matters to Dana White and Joe Silva is the ability to have exciting fights.
I think that the next season of the Ultimate Fighter should feature 16 fighters living in a house with the Diaz brothers coaching opposing teams. The hilarity that would ensue would be a guaranteed ratings hit, and plus we’d get to see two of the most insane mixed martial artists in the world slug it out at the end of the season. I have no idea why this hasn’t happened yet.
An exciting win for either man in this fight would likely move them up the lightweight rankings significantly, but I believe Diaz is too complete and too tactical for Guida to have any real chance of beating him. Diaz can throw plenty of punches and almost none of them will do any damage, but I think Guida will make a mistake on the ground and give Diaz the chance to sink in a triangle choke. Either way, the fans are the real winners of this fight.
Nick Diaz by submission, round two
Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono: Jon Fitch by TKO, round one
Manny Gamburyan vs. Thiago Tavares: Thiago Tavares by decision
John Howard vs. Chris Wilson: Chris Wilson by TKO, round three
Jake O’Brien vs. Christian Wellisch: Jake O’Brien by decision
Matt Arroyo vs. Dan Cramer: Matt Arroyo by TKO, round one
