Picking the winners and losers of a UFC fight card is an exciting endeavor. Not only can you pick who you think will win the fight, but you can predict how and in what round. Let’s take a deeper look at some factors which could determine the winners and losers at UFC 94.
The first fight on this card features a lightweight showdown between Nate Diaz and Clay Guida.
Nate Diaz (10-2) is famous for two things: being the younger brother of Nick Diaz and winning season 5 of The Ultimate Fighter. Diaz did well in his three fights leading up to the season finale. He submitted all three of his opponents – all currently fighters in the UFC: Rob Emerson, Corey Hill and Gray Maynard.
In the final, Diaz faced Manvel Gamburyan – who was forced to submit in the second round due to the dislocation of his right shoulder. Since then, Diaz has gone 4-0 in the octagon beating noted fighters such as Alvin Robinson, Kurt Joseph Pellegrino, and Josh Neer. Three of those four wins came by way of submission.
The most notable loss of Diaz’s young career came when he was submitted by the more seasoned Hermes Franca. That fight took place at WEC 24. It was Nate’s last fight before joining TUF. If you include his four wins on the show, Diaz is 8-0 since his loss to Franca. Franca went on to fight Sean Sherk for the lightweight title and lost.
Clay Guida (24-9) is an MMA veteran. He made his octagon debut at UFC 64 submitting Justin James. Clay has compiled a 4-3 record inside the UFC. He is renowned for his relentless pressure and unending stamina inside the octagon. His fight with Tyson Griffin won “fight of the night” at UFC 72. He lost that fight via split decision, although many observers thought he won the fight.
Guida is seen as a gatekeeper to the upper echelon of lightweight fighters. He beats fighters who are not worthy yet (Mac Danzing, Marcus Aurelio) and loses to those who are (Tyson Griffin, Roger Huerta). Guida was winning what was a great fight with Huerta before getting caught with knees and ultimately being submitted.
Diaz will have to bring his A-game if he wants to get past Guida – who will be his toughest test to date. Fortunately for Nate, six of Clay’s nine losses have come by way of submission – Nate’s favorite way to win. A submission won’t come easy though. Guida will test Diaz’s heart and make him work for a victory. If this fight goes to a decision Guida will likely be victorious.
I would have felt better about picking Diaz if he looked more impressive in his last fight (a split decision win) against Josh Neer. One thing that is telling for Diaz was his win over Gray Maynard on TUF. Maynard was a bigger, stronger wrestler and Diaz still managed to sink in a near naked choke. If Diaz can keep tempo and remain elusive a submission victory might be his.
With that said I think Diaz will keep pace and is ready to join the upper tier of fighters in the lightweight division. Diaz by submission, round two
The second matchup features the return of Karo Parisyan in what is a much needed win for the welterweight gatekeeper.
Karo Parisyan (18-5) is set to take on Dong Hyun Kim. Karo was considered the top contender for the welterweight title before a loss to Diego Sanchez. He had won five fights in a row going into his fight with Sanchez. After the loss he reeled off three more wins before losing to Thiago Alves via TKO. The loss was the first time Karo had been knocked out in an MMA fight.
Karo has all the tools to consistently be a top fighter but inconsistently has plagued him. To make matters worse it has been relieved that he Armenian fighter suffers from panic attacks. In the high-stakes world of MMA, a mental chink is much worse then a physical chink and will likely be blood in the water to a savvy opponent. Can Parisyan return to the form he once held?
Dong Hyun Kim (11-0-1) is undefeated in his mixed martial arts career. He is 2-0 inside the octagon. In his last fight, at UFC 88, he recorded a controversial split decision win over Matt Brown. Joe Rogan thought Ultimate Fighter alum (Brown) had won the fight and aired his opinion to the crowd after the decision.
Kim relies on a potent mix of Judo, Kickboxing, and BJJ and possesses a knack for clinch takedowns and reversals which makes him difficult to control. This will be the biggest test of Kim’s MMA career and if Karo doesn’t bring his A-game, he has a really shot of the upset.
Parisyan, who is 9-3 inside the octagon, should win if he is fully focused. Dong Hyun Kim is a slouch but he should not be a match for a fully game Parisyan. I think Karo will get back to his winning form and outpoint the less experienced Kim. Needles to say, I am a little anxious about my pick. Just avoid Kim’s guard, breathe, and you’ll be fine! Parisyan by decision
Stephan Bonnar (12-4) will collide with UFC newcomer Jon Jones (7-0). Bonnar is famous for his time on the groundbreaking first season of The Ultimate Fighter. His fight with Forrest Griffin is the reason we are all here sharing our thoughts on MMA.
Stephan has gone 5-2 since the TUF finale. His two losses are a second to Forrest Griffin and to current light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans. Bonnar holds wins over Keith Jardine, James Irvin, and Eric Shafer. Bonnar has a versatile style in that he can submit, TKO, or grind or a decision win over his opponent.
Bonnar has not fought in almost 16 months due to a serious knee injury he suffered during training. The big question will be how his ring rust affects his performance. Stephan is a determined veteran and will need to be in full form against his game opponent.
Jon Jones is a forceful fighter who has put together a 6-0 record in various smaller outfights. In Jones’s first six fights he recorded five first round T(KO)’s and one submission. The UFC is a big step up in competition though. At UFC 87 Jon notched a decision win over previously undefeated IFL veteran Andre Gusmao. It was a good first fight for Jones in the UFC.
Normally, when picking a fight, it increases your chances when you pick the fighter who has more ways to win. Bonnar would be that choice here. Not only does he have more weapons but he has fought seven times inside the octagon and is used to being on the big stage.
Despite that, I am going to gamble here and pick Jones to upset the TUF veteran. Bonner will have a lot of ring rust coming into the fight while Jones is running on all cylinders. Jones has fought and won seven of his fights during the same span of time Bonnar has been sidelined
Stephan has a great chin and has never been knocked out in his career. I wouldn’t be shocked if Jones, who has dynamite in his hands, pulled it off. If I weren’t calling for the upset, look for Bonnar to get the submission. Bonnar should avoid the striking game altogether and focus on taking Jones out of his gamelan. The longer the fight goes, the less likely an upset happens.
If you’re going for the upset like me: Jones by TKO, round one
For those playing it safe: Bonnar buy submission, round two.
Both Lyoto Machida (13-0) and Thiago Silva (13-0) come into this fight undefeated. If Lyoto impresses, which translates to a TKO or submission victory, he should finally get his title shot. If Silva wins, he is likely one fight removed. These two fighters couldn’t have more contrasting styles which should/could make for an entertaining fight.
Machida is known for what some call his “boring” fight style. I prefer deliberate, methodical, and artful. Whatever you call it, it is effective. Lyoto holds wins over Stephan Bonnar, Rich Franklin, B.J Penn, Sokoudjou, and Tito Ortiz. His style blends a mixture of disciplines which include Karate, Sumo, and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Machida has also trained in Muay Thai.
Silva couldn’t be a much different fighter. Thiago is a very aggressive fighter who trains under the famed Chute Box Academy, which produced MMA champions such as Wanderlei Silva and Shogun Rua. Silva has been very critical of Machida’s unorthodox style leading up to their fight saying, “If he runs, I run after him.” Silva will look to give Machida his stiffest challenge to date.
While both fighters are undefeated, their competition clearly separates the two fighters. Machida has fought a impressive list of opponents while Silva’s toughest competition is a toss up between Houston Alexander and James Irvin. But Silva dispenses of his competition in a timely manner He has ended nine of his thirteen fights in the first round while Machida has eight decision wins.
So we have “red wine” vs. a shot of tequila. While tequila usually makes for a more entertaining evening red wine is the more elegant way to go. Machida will need his ability to avoid getting cornered, as Silva’s brute strength and power make him tough to handle. While I expect Silva will shine, in controlled moments, Machida’s ability to control the tempo makes the difference.
It shouldn’t take long for Machida to break down Silva’s one-dimensional approach. Lyoto gets that win and gets his title shot…but will need one more win the win against Silva? I would like to pick a TKO but I think Machida will be pleased to secure the win. Machida by decision
As for the superfight between Georges St. Pierre vs. B.J Penn, I will leave that breakdown for the UFC 94 War Report. Enjoy fight fans.
