So I was trying to figure out the odds of making the Top 12 based on how the voting is structured for the Semifinal Rounds (not including the Wild Card/Repechage Round). In theory, there’s a 25% chance of advancing since 3 of the 12 singers make it. However, that’s not exactly true, since 2 spots are gender specific. So we need to delve into the wild world of probability to figure this out. Bear with me if either a) you hate math or b) my math is wrong.
First and foremost, there are the gender-specific slots. For each flight, there are 6 contestants gunning for that spot, meaning a 16.67% shot of getting that. Those that do not win that slot now have a second shot of making the Top 12, meaning that 10 contestants are fighting it out to make the Top 12. That, obviously, is a 1 in 10, or 10% shot at glory. Now here’s where I think my math may be off. Odds calculation tells us to add the two percentages together, which means that one has a 26.67% shot at making the Top 12. That’s a 4 in 15 chance – a better chance than the basic math says you should have. I’m kinda confused, since I was expecting that the odds would fall somewhere in between that 16.67% and 25%. Are there any statisticians that can help me out?
Back to the show. The theme, once again, is the Billboard Hot 100. And as we saw last week, this is a very dangerous theme, because it gives TOO much freedom for contestants to choose a song, and many, many times they choose one that they like more than they can sing. SPOILER ALERT: If you thought last week served as a lesson for this flight of singers… well you’d be wrong.
I’m a harsh guy when it comes to rating the singers, but the thing is, if you give someone a 10, and someone else turns out to be better, where do you go from there? So in my book, a 7 would rank as a pretty good performance, and you need to blow me away to get 9s. However, I will usually give .5 right off to the first performer of the night, because the leadoff spot is such a tough position to be in, especially in the Semifinal rounds. Thus, Jasmine Murray gets an extra half point from me. It’s not gonna do her any good, as she goes after “Love Song” by Sara Bareilles. She’s a shining example of why they need to raise the minimum age for the competition – as Simon noted, two more years of seasoning and she’s probably a force to be reckoned with. Let’s ignore the question of whether Idol is still here in two years – that’s not really the point. There is, of course, a counterpoint to the minimum age argument later in this show, but it’s an exception, not the rule. Let’s get a “Lebron Rule” onto Idol ASAP. 4/10
Next is Matt Giraud, who is a dueling piano player and is singing Coldplay’s “Viva la Vida”. Matt can sing Ray Charles, but Coldplay? Nuh-uh. My comment to my wife was that it was like seeing Michael Bublé sing Coldplay. Can Bublé sing? Yeah. Do you want to see him sing Coldplay? Hell, no. I give him props for taking a risk here, but it didn’t pay off. 5/10
Jeanine Vailles channels Bikini Girl by wearing short shorts. She “sings” “This Love” by Maroon 5. In quotes because she sings somewhere close to William Hung-level bad. Yes, that bad. Paula even kept her comments to “you have great legs”. 2/10
Nick “Norman Gentle” Mitchell was probably on some type of Spirit Squad at some point, and he’s singing the song from Dreamgirls that won Jennifer Hudson an Oscar. Nick’s performance is, to be honest, awesome in everything not related to singing. And that awesomeness may actually get him into the Top 12, because this is a joke gone way, WAY too far. They’re trying to recreate the Sanjaya phenomenon here since Nick’s voice really is not good enough for him to be at this stage. The thing is that Nick is fully aware of his limitations and has fully embraced being deliberately cheesy to go forward. The only problem I really have is that I believe that this is the third or fourth time he’s done the Dreamgirls song. I don’t know if he can do well with other themes. 4.5/10
Allison Iraheta intends to sing “Alone” by Heart. This is one of those songs that, if you don’t blow it out of the water, you’re dead in the water. Being timid or tentative with this song simply will not do, because either you can be bigger than the song or it will eat you up, and the judges will call you on it. Allison, to her credit, blew it up. Clearly, she knew what to do with the song, sang it straight, and was the best performance of the night running away, and provided the counterpoint to the “16-year olds shouldn’t be on Idol” argument. 8.5/10
Kris Allen sings “Man in the Mirror” by Michael Jackson. To his credit, it’s ok, but how can you impress people with a low key Michael Jackson song? I didn’t remember Kris from before and I don’t think I will anymore, but he showed enough that we could see him in the Wild Card. 6/10
Pixie-faced, sleeve tattooed Megan Corkey is singing Corrine Bailey Rae’s “Put Your Records On” and WTF IS WITH THE SHIMMY? She seems to have adopted Kobayashi’s hot dog eating shimmy and it is possibly the most annoying thing I’ve ever seen on the show. No wait, I take that back. The most annoying thing was Taylor Hicks. Ryan tries to put it over as a new move but like Casey Kasem putting over Lisa Turtle’s dance, I’m not buying it. The sad part is that Megan actually sang well but the shimmy was so annoyingly distracting that I have to deduct points for it. 5.5/10
Matt Breitzke is the Mark Starr to Michael Sarver’s Chris Kanyon.
Or maybe he’s a real man’s man.
.
Ahem. With the wrestling jokes out of the way, let’s talk about the performance. Matt sings Tonic’s “If You Could Only See”, and really the main negative here was that he didn’t really do anything with the song. He has a good voice, he sang it smooth, but there wasn’t any substance to it. Matt will no doubt get a chance to sing in the Wild Card, and he should do better with the critiques of his perfomance on his mind. 5.5/10
Next performer is Jesse Langseth, singing “Bette Davis Eyes” by Kim Carnes. Suffice it to say, the single mom does not sing like she has a two-pack-a-day habit, and as a result, the song doesn’t have the proper sultriness to it, although Jesse does do a pretty good sultry. Yes, the conservatively dressed woman did a much better job of looking sexy than Miss Shorty Shorts earlier. Still, I don’t know that it was enough to bring her back for another go. 5.5/10
Kai Kalama sings the 60’s, and as the judges noted, it was a safe choice, which to be honest is not that bad a strategy, but safe choice means that you really need to come off as strong, and Kai didn’t really do that. And with the camp-o-riffic Nick in the mix, this performance gets lost. 5/10
Mishavonna Henson made it to Hollywood Week last year, and I couldn’t tell you for sure since I don’t remember her at all. She sings “Drops of Jupiter” by Train. Another blah choice, to be sure. Mishavonna doesn’t excite me here, she doesn’t excite the judges and based on the performances if Allison isn’t the top female it’s a travesty of justice. 5/10
Pimp spot goes to Adam “Emo Boy” Lambert, who decides to sing “Satisfaction” by the Rolling Stones. This is a song you really shouldn’t mess with, yet that’s exactly what Adam does. It’s really, really bad at the beginning, as Emo Boy tries for the slow build before rocking out. You can’t do that with this song! He hits his stride in the middle though, and finishes it off with what can only be described as a 80’s hair metal wail. Best of the guys, pretty much by default. Yeah, 6.5 gets you the male victory. 6.5/10
Predictions
Advancing:
Adam Lambert
Allison Iraheta
Nick Mitchell
Wild Card (assuming they take four from each flight)
Megan Corkrey
Matt Brietzke
Matt Giraud
Kris Allen
See you next week.
Kevin Wong writes for Reality Dish, Prime Time Pulse and Inside Fights. He apologizes for the wrestling jokes, but hey, he’s gotta get them in there when he can.
