Kelly Pavlik defends his middleweight title this Saturday against Sergio Martinez as part of a split-site HBO doubleheader. Pavlik-Martinez will take place in Atlantic City, NJ while the co-feature of Lucian Bute vs. Edison Miranda will emanate from Montreal. The coverage will begin at 10 pm ET on HBO, preceded by the second episode of Mayweather/Mosley 24/7.
Kelly Pavlik vs. Sergio Martinez
WBO/WBC Middleweight Titles
Money Line: Pavlik -180; Martinez +150
Kelly Pavlik, 36-1 (32 KOs), has had a polarizing run as middleweight champion since winning the belt from Jermain Taylor in 2007. On one hand, he’s undefeated as a middleweight and has knocked out every meaningful opponent he’s faced at 160 pounds. On the other hand, his title defense have come against Gary Lockett, Marco Antonio Rubio, and Miguel Espino. Pavlik’s 2009 was muddled with injuries and an inability to formalize a fight with Paul Williams. The pride of Youngstown, Ohio finally faces a worthy title contender in Sergio Martinez and to say that Pavlik needs to have a good performance would be an understatement. Kelly Pavlik is the king of the middleweight division and this Saturday would be a perfect time for him remind the other middleweights that the king is not dead.
Sergio Martinez, 44-2-2 (24 KOs), poses the greatest threat to take the middleweight title from Kelly Pavlik since Pavlik won the title in 2007. Sergio is a southpaw with quick hands and a sturdy chin. His quick combinations will give Pavlik fits and the fact that he won’t back away from Pavlik’s power will go a long way in demoralizing the champion. Martinez has not been in the judges’ favor in his last two bouts, a controversial draw to Kermit Cintron and a majority decision loss to Paul Williams, so a win over Pavlik would do a lot to erase those hard feelings. It feels strange for Martinez to have a middleweight title shot coming off of a loss to Paul Williams, but Sergio Martinez may very well make the most of his opportunity and outbox Kelly Pavlik on his way to a world title.
Staff Predictions
Bryan: I see this fight being similar to Martinez vs. Williams except perhaps not quite as close. I think Martinez will use his boxing, lateral movement and most of all speed to win just enough rounds to steal the Middleweight Championship. The only difference is Pavlik hits like a sledgehammer and if he connects flush, game over. This fight will hinge upon whether or not Pavlik picked up any of that “slickness” that Hopkins told Pavlik he needed after taking him to school for twelve rounds. My guess is he hasn’t.
Corey: Pavlik needs this win more than any in his career. Having made no quality defenses of the middleweight title since he won it in 2007, it’s do or die time for him to prove he’s still the man at 160 pounds. With that said, he’s chosen a style (Martinez) that’s extremely difficult to beat and almost impossible to look good against. Three of Pavlik’s last four opponents were just begging to be hit, while Martinez has been wily enough to avoid bombs from disciplined punchers like Kermit Cintron. The feeling here is Sergio will get enough early rounds in the bank to give him some breathing room for when Pavlik inevitably comes barreling after him late. As long as he doesn’t get hit too flush too often, especially early in the fight, Martinez overcomes Pavlik’s power advantage and pulls out a decision, 116-112, to take the middleweight crown.
Paul: I’m not going to tip-toe around it or try to straddle the fence…Sergio Martinez will beat Kelly Pavlik and it’ll be a sad and ugly affair for “The Ghost.” Pavlik will have a puncher’s chance for as long as the fight lasts, but as Bernard Hopkins showed us, Pavlik is a C- fighter if he can’t set his feet properly. Martinez’s movement and hand speed will bust Kelly up and as the situation gets desperate, Kelly will get sloppier. Pavlik will be one punch away from ending it all night, but Martinez is the wrong fight and, remember, this is no longer the mega-confident Kelly Pavlik who steamrolled his way through the division…My Official Prediction: Sergio Martinez via 8th round TKO, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended much sooner.
Trent: Kelly Pavlik has not fought a meaningful middleweight bout since winning the title. His rematch with Jermain was at a catchweight as was his loss to Bernard Hopkins. Sergio Martinez will be Pavlik’s toughest title defense. Pavlik has always been a blue-collar guy and he will work his ass off for this fight. I expect Pavlik to come into this fight in excellent shape and fully aware of what is at stake for him. Martinez is a tough guy to put away but Pavlik will do it. It wouldn’t surprise me if Pavlik’s back hits the canvas in the fight but he will have his hand raised at the end. Pavlik by TKO in 10.
