As part of making my mock drafts, I wanted to look at the trends of teams for when they draft players in the first round. We know certain things – the Braves draft good pitchers; the A’s like college players. I wanted to go a little more in depth.
I went back the last 20 years (to the 1990 Draft) and looked at each pick.
Please note that some of the percentages don’t add up correctly due to the spreadsheet rounding off numbers.
Overall
862 total picks; 13 did not sign.
53% College; 1% JuCo; 46% HS
5% Catcher (2% College; 3% HS)
5% First Base (3% College; 2% HS)
2% Second Base (1% College; 1% HS)
6% Third Base (3% College; 3% HS)
8% Shortstop (3% College; 5% HS)
20% Outfield (9% College; 11% HS)
15% LHP (9% College; 6% HS)
37% RHP (22% College; 15% HS)
Here is the breakdown per team:
Angels
24 total picks; all signed.
54% College; 4% JuCo; 42% HS
8% Catchers (8% HS)
8% First Base (4% College; 4% JuCo)
12% Third Base (8% College; 4% HS)
17% Outfield (4% College; 13% HS)
21% LHP (13% College; 8% HS)
33% RHP (25% College; 8% HS)
Astros
27 total picks; all signed.
59% College; 41% HS
18% Catcher (7% College; 11% HS)
4% First Base (4% College)
4% Second Base (4% College)
7% Third Base (7% College)
15% Shortstop (4% College; 11% HS)
7% Outfield (7% College)
7% LHP (7% College)
38% RHP (19% College; 19% HS)
Athletics
41 total picks; all signed.
85% College; 15% HS
5% Catcher (5% College)
2% First Base (2% College)
5% Second Base (5% College)
7% Third Base (5% College; 2% HS)
12% Shortstop (12% College)
17% Outfield (12% College; 5% HS)
12% LHP (12% College)
39% RHP (32% College; 7% HS)
Note – the A’s drafted a Cuban Defector; he wasn’t classified as college or HS, so he was included in the total but is missing from the percentages.
Blue Jays
36 total picks; 1 did not sign.
44% College; 3% JuCo; 53% HS
3% Catcher (3% College)
3% First Base (3% College)
3% Second Base (3% HS)
3% Third Base (3% HS)
20% Shortstop (6% College; 14% HS)
27% Outfield (8% College; 19% HS)
17% LHP (14% College; 3% JuCo)
25% RHP (11% College; 14% HS)
Braves
28 total picks; all signed.
18% College; 82% HS
4% Catcher (4% HS)
7% First Base (7% HS)
8% Second Base (4% College; 4% HS)
7% Third Base (7% HS)
11% Shortstop (11% HS)
15% Outfield (4% College; 11% HS)
21% LHP (7% College; 14% HS)
29% RHP (4% College; 25% HS)
Brewers
28 total picks; all signed.
57% College; 43% HS
8% First Base (4% College; 4% HS)
8% Second Base (4% College; 4% HS)
4% Third Base (4% College)
4% Shortstop (4% HS)
25% Outfield (21% College; 4% HS)
8% LHP (4% College; 4% HS)
46% RHP (21% College; 25% HS)
Cardinals
36 total picks; all signed.
64% College; 36% HS
6% Catcher (3% College; 3% HS)
3% First Base (3% HS)
12% Third Base (6% College; 6% HS)
14% Shortstop (6% College; 8% HS)
6% Outfield (3% College; 3% HS)
8% LHP (8% College)
53% RHP (39% College; 14% HS)
Cubs
26 total picks; all signed.
65% College; 35% HS
4% Catcher (4% College)
4% Third Base (4% HS)
12% Shortstop (8% College; 4% HS)
23% Outfield (15% College; 8% HS)
12% LHP (8% College; 4% HS)
46% RHP (31% College; 15% HS)
Diamondbacks
23 total picks; all signed.
57% College; 43% HS
4% Catcher (4% College)
8% First Base (4% College; 4% HS)
4% Second Base (4% College)
9% Third Base (9% HS)
13% Shortstop (4% College; 9% HS)
13% Outfield (9% College; 4% HS)
17% LHP (13% College; 4% HS)
31% RHP (22% College; 9% HS)
Dodgers
25 total picks; 1 did not sign.
40% College; 4% JuCo; 56% HS
8% Catcher (8% HS)
8% First Base (4% College; 4% HS)
4% Third Base (4% HS)
8% Shortstop (8% HS)
12% Outfield (8% College; 4% HS)
24% LHP (12% College; 12% HS)
36% RHP (16% College; 4% JuCo; 16% HS)
Giants
37 total picks; all signed.
54% College; 46% HS
8% Catcher (5% College; 3% HS)
5% Second Base (5% HS)
3% Third Base (3% College)
3% Shortstop (3% College)
27% Outfield (16% College; 11% HS)
12% LHP (8% College; 5% HS)
41% RHP (19% College; 22% HS)
Indians
31 total picks; 1 did not sign.
45% College; 6% JuCo; 49% HS
3% Catcher (3% JuCo)
16% First Base (13% College; 3% HS)
3% Second Base (3% HS)
6% Third Base (3% JuCo; 3% HS)
3% Shortstop (3% College)
20% Outfield (10% College; 10% HS)
16% LHP (6% College; 10% HS)
33% RHP (13% College; 20% HS)
Mariners
23 total picks; 1 did not sign.
52% College; 48% HS
13% Catcher (4% College; 9% HS)
4% First Base (4% College)
4% Second Base (4% College)
4% Third Base (4% College)
17% Shortstop (4% College; 13% HS)
18% Outfield (9% College; 9% HS)
18% LHP (9% College; 9% HS)
22% RHP (13% College; 9% HS)
Marlins
22 total picks; all signed.
36% College; 64% HS
10% Catcher (5% College; 5% HS)
5% First Base (5% HS)
5% Second Base (5% College)
5% Third Base (5% HS)
5% Shortstop (5% HS)
19% Outfield (5% College; 14% HS)
19% LHP (5% College; 14% HS)
36% RHP (18% College; 18% HS)
Mets
28 total picks; all signed.
50% College; 50% HS
4% Catcher (4% HS)
4% First Base (4% College)
4% Third Base (4% HS)
11% Shortstop (4% College; 7% HS)
25% Outfield (11% College; 14% HS)
18% LHP (7% College; 11% HS)
36% RHP (25% College; 11% HS)
Nationals/Expos
39 total picks; 1 did not sign.
36% College; 64% HS
5% First Base (5% HS)
3% Second Base (3% HS)
6% Third Base (3% College; 3% HS)
8% Shortstop (8% HS)
21% Outfield (3% College; 18% HS)
18% LHP (8% College; 10% HS)
41% RHP (23% College; 18% HS)
Orioles
32 total picks; 1 did not sign.
56% College; 44% HS
6% Catcher (3% College; 3% HS)
3% First Base (3% College)
6% Second Base (6% College)
6% Third Base (6% HS)
3% Shortstop (3% HS)
29% Outfield (16% College; 13% HS)
22% LHP (9% College; 13% HS)
25% RHP (22% College; 3% HS)
Padres
35 total picks; all signed.
57% College; 43% HS
9% Catcher (3% College; 6% HS)
6% First Base (3% College; 3% HS)
12% Third Base (9% College; 3% HS)
15% Shortstop (6% College; 9% HS)
17% Outfield (6% College; 11% HS)
15% LHP (9% College; 6% HS)
29% RHP (23% College; 6% HS)
Phillies
22 total picks; all signed.
55% College; 45% HS
10% Catcher (5% College; 5% HS)
10% Second Base (5% College; 5% HS)
5% Third Base (5% College)
5% Shortstop (5% HS)
27% Outfield (18% College; 9% HS)
10% LHP (5% College; 5% HS)
36% RHP (18% College; 18% HS)
Pirates
24 total picks; all signed.
54% College; 46% HS
4% Catcher (4% College)
12% First Base (4% College; 8% HS)
8% Third Base (4% College; 4% HS)
8% Shortstop (8% HS)
21% Outfield (4% College; 17% HS)
13% LHP (13% College)
33% RHP (25% College; 8% HS)
Rangers
29 total picks; 2 did not sign.
62% College; 38% HS
3% Catcher (3% HS)
10% First Base (10% College)
7% Third Base (7% HS)
6% Shortstop (3% College; 3% HS)
10% Outfield (10% College)
20% LHP (10% College; 10% HS)
42% RHP (28% College; 14% HS)
Rays
14 total picks; 1 did not sign.
29% College; 71% HS
7% Second Base (7% HS)
7% Third Base (7% College)
7% Shortstop (7% HS)
36% Outfield (36% HS)
7% LHP (7% College)
35% RHP (14% College; 21% HS)
Red Sox
32 total picks; all signed.
53% College; 47% HS
3% Third Base (3% College)
9% Shortstop (6% College; 3% HS)
35% Outfield (16% College; 19% HS)
16% LHP (13% College; 3% HS)
38% RHP (16% College; 22% HS)
Reds
25 total picks; 1 did not sign.
48% College; 52% HS
8% Catcher (4% College; 4% HS)
4% First Base (4% College)
4% Third Base (4% College)
4% Shortstop (4% College)
24% Outfield (12% College; 12% HS)
12% LHP (4% College;8% HS)
36% RHP (16% College; 20% HS)
Rockies
23 total picks; 1 did not sign.
48% College; 52% HS
4% First Base (4% College)
4% Second Base (4% HS)
4% Third Base (4% HS)
8% Shortstop (4% College; 4% HS)
9% Outfield (9% College)
22% LHP (13% College; 9% HS)
47% RHP (17% College; 30% HS)
Royals
32 total picks; all signed.
50% College; 50% HS
6% First Base (6% HS)
6% Third Base (3% College; 3% HS)
3% Shortstop (3% College)
19% Outfield (6% College; 13% HS)
25% LHP (9% College; 16% HS)
41% RHP (28% College; 13% HS)
Tigers
24 total picks; all signed.
54% College; 46% HS
4% Catcher (4% College)
8% Third Base (4% College; 4% HS)
4% Shortstop (4% HS)
8% Outfield (8% HS)
12% LHP (4% College; 8% HS)
63% RHP (42% College; 21% HS)
Twins
36 total picks; 1 did not sign.
53% College; 47% HS
6% Catcher (3% College; 3% HS)
9% First Base (6% College; 3% HS)
3% Second Base (3% College)
9% Third Base (3% College; 6% HS)
3% Shortstop (3% HS)
25% Outfield (3% College; 22% HS)
20% LHP (17% College; 3% HS)
27% RHP (19% College; 8% HS)
White Sox
34 total picks; all signed.
74% College; 3% JuCo; 24% HS
6% Catcher (3% College; 3% HS)
3% First Base (3% JuCo)
6% Third Base (3% College; 3% HS)
6% Shortstop (6% College)
15% Outfield (12% College; 3% HS)
21% LHP (15% College; 6% HS)
44% RHP (35% College; 9% HS)
Yankees
26 total picks; 1 did not sign.
46% College; 54% HS
4% Catcher (4% College)
4% First Base (4% HS)
4% Third Base (4% HS)
8% Shortstop (8% HS)
27% Outfield (12% College; 15% HS)
12% LHP (8% College; 4% HS)
42% RHP (23% College; 19% HS)
Thoughts…
I created this to use as part of my mock draft; teams tend to pick based off their habits. Now, most of the drafting philosophies from 20 years ago won’t be the same as now, due to staff turnover and changes to the game. One thing I noticed was that the A’s took more high school at the beginning of the period; we have learned through Moneyball that Billy Beane (and to a degree the previous administration) didn’t like taking the risk on high school players, specifically pitchers.
I want to point out that I’m not using this to say my mock draft is bound by this; since the Nationals/Expos have never taken a catcher in the first round, I won’t rule out that they will take Bryce Harper with the first pick (which they will). Truthfully, it goes against everything these trends show, since they’ve never used a first round pick on a catcher since 1990 or the fact that they have only taken 36% of college players in that time period.
I would think many baseball organizations would do something like this, especially teams that seem to have problem developing talent. They can see the type of players they take and determine where the problem is.
Maybe down the line, I’ll go even more in depth and look at success levels and specific schools to see where the best players come from or expand this to all rounds.
