If this wasn’t the debut of “Bettor Breakdown”, I’d give this edition the nickname “Underdog’s Edition”! Join me as I take a look at Saturday’s card and give you a breakdown of who I would put money on, and why.
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Mark Hunt: -260 (Bet $260 to win $100)
Sean McCorkle: +200 (Underdog)
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Internet sensation and undefeated heavyweight prospect Sean McCorkle (9-0) is making his UFC debut this Saturday against a returning PRIDE FC legend in Mark Hunt (5-6). Mark Hunt has been training under American Top Team for his upcoming fight and has lost a considerable amount of weight from his PRIDE days. With all that positivity out of the way, the fact of the matter is Mark Hunt has not won a MMA fight since 2006 in PRIDE. Even though he is a K-1 level striker, a good handful of his victories in K-1 have come by way of decision.
Sean McCorkle on the other hand has only let one out of his nine fights go to decision. He has submitted four (three of those were verbal submissions due to punches) and KOd four of his opponents. This is an obvious step up in competition for McCorkle, whether it be on a personal level or an athletic level… this is going to be a big deal for him. As McCorkle stated, “I’m the best of the worst and he’s the worst of the best.” Despite the fact that Hunt is on a five-fight losing streak, Hunt is… Mark Hunt. Who knows, maybe we’ll see a flying butt-drop.
Prediction: Sean McCorkle (This isn’t a fight you want to drop a lot of money on. This is the first fight of the evening… treat it as so.)
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Sean Sherk: +190 (Underdog)
Evan Dunham: -250 (Bet $250 to win $100)
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While “Cro Cop vs. Mir” and “Lil Nog vs. Bader” have received all the mainstream spotlight, the Internet seems to be more interested in Sherk’s and Dunham’s face-off this Saturday. Both men have something to prove. For Sherk, he needs to prove to all the naysayers that he is not washed up. Plagued with injuries lately, Sherk has not been able to compete since his last loss against Frankie Edgar at UFC 98. His only career losses are against future UFC Hall-of-Famers or current UFC champions (GSP, Matt Hughes, BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar), and though that is impressive, the defeats came at crushing times. Sherk needs to either have killer instinct while boxing, or go back to his ground-and-pound days.
Evan Dunham needs to prove that he deserves to be in the octagon with names like Sean Sherk, Clay Guida and Kenny Florian. Undefeated, Evan Dunham (11-0) is walking into Saturday not the most impressive UFC resume. He has defeated a recently deflated Tyson Griffin (by split decision) and his other three opponents aren’t even with the UFC anymore. I don’t doubt for a second that Evan Dunham is a talented kid, but I don’t think he has what it takes to defeat somebody at the caliber of Sean Sherk.
Prediction: Sean Sherk (Sherk outperforms BJJ grapplers… it’s a fact. He defeated Nick Diaz, a blooming Kenny Florian and a black belt in Hermes Franca. I doubt Evan Dunham’s BJJ will trouble Sherk much.)
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Frank Mir -280 (Bet $280 to win $100)
Mirko Cro Cop +220 (Underdog)
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2006 PRIDE FC Openweight Grand Prix winner Mirko Cro Cop vs. Former UFC Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir; PRIDE vs. UFC. While that’s the main story that’s driving most fans to order the pay-per-view, it is barely what’s driving the two competitors from duking it out. Mir, fresh off a devastating loss to Shane Carwin, is looking to redeem himself much like he did against Kongo almost a year ago. Cro Cop, like Mir, has reignited the flame in his competitive spirit after defeating Pat Barry and Anthony Perosh. This is a risky match to bet on, but I can honestly see it going Cro Cop’s way.
Frank Mir has been an emotional roller-coaster ever since Brock Lesnar debuted in the UFC. Almost getting run-off into the light-heavyweight division, Frank Mir decided to remain a heavyweight and try to rekindle the magic he displayed against guys like Nogueira and Kongo. But when Mir made comments about getting another shot at Lesnar and maybe a rematch with Carwin while training for Cro Cop, that’s when things began to look sour for the former champion. Mir has the tendency to let losses and the urge for revenge eat away at him and distract him from his short-term goals, and in this case it’s defeating Mirko Cro Cop.
Here’s how I view it: Of course, if the fight goes to the ground Frank Mir will have the advantage. Cro Cop is no slouch on the ground, but I don’t think he matches up well with Mir at all. I believe the fight will stay on the feet, though, and will likely end in a first round knockout. With his eye injured, Cro Cop will be throwing dangerous kicks and punches, either trying to keep Mir at bay or trying to knock Mir out as soon as possible. Mir IS overconfident on his feet, and I don’t know why the media plays into him being a world-class striker now. He knocked out a half-dead Minotoro Nogueira (with staph-infection and the flu) and an upper-class heavyweight in Cheick Kongo. He failed to hang in there with elites like Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin. I’m not saying that Cro Cop is elite right now, but I think he still has dangerous striking and a little bit of elite left in him.
Prediction: Mirko Cro Cop (Not the easiest bet to make all night, at all. But if you can afford to drop a few dollars on Cro Cop, I wouldn’t pass this up. I haven’t seen a world-class striker this heavy a under-dog in a long time.)
(All moneylines are according to Bodog Sports on September 24th, 2010)
