If ever you had any doubt as to whether or not the UFC was going to play for keeps in 2011 I’d suggest you look no further than this bout, their first televised one of the new year. Drenched in intrigue and a strong favorite to win Fight of the Night this fight will see two highly touted Lightweights battle to stay atop the oh so crowded division.
Clay Guida (27-11; 4 KOs, 14 SUBs), my choice to take home the W, has always excelled at exploiting Dana White’s “Exciting Fights” clause and because of that he knows that his job is secure after this outing, win or lose. Of course the price he pays comes in the form of intelligent defense and rational game planning. He’s happy to throw caution to the wind, run around the cage like a loose canon, and engage in standup wars that he has no business in. He wins some and he loses some but that is neither here nor there because at the end of the day the fans and the boss go home satisfied. He comes in on a two fight win streak (Shannon Gugerty and Rafael dos Anjos) that was preceded by a two fight losing streak (Diego Sanchez and Kenny Florian) and has publicly stated that this is the kickoff to his championship campaign. And while I am sure that the higher ups would much rather see him with the gold as opposed to, oh, Gray Maynard, this is the UFC, not Strikeforce, and as things stand now he still needs to work on his credentials.
Standing across the cage from him will be Takanori Gomi (32-6; 12 KOs, 6 SUBs) who will be making his third appearance in the UFC after coming over from Japan about a year ago. It seemed as though his destiny was to be the next great challenger to BJ Penn’s Lightweight title back when we still thought BJ Penn was great. Things hit a snag early however as he ran into Kenny Florian UFC Fight Night 21 and was dominated from the word go and lost via submission. Then in August, with his reputation on the line, he drilled Tyson Griffin with an Earth shattering right that saved his career for the moment. That same right hand could come in very handy this Saturday assuming Guida goes with his usual wild man approach. The question is can Gomi corner him or catch him off guard to land it and my guess is no. If Guida were smart he would strike sparingly and focus more on takedowns and ground control en route to a decision victory, but somehow I just don’t see him being that disciplined. Rather I see them both leaving it all on the line for about two and a half rounds until Guida’s kinetic energy simply gets the best of Gomi and he is able to grab a submission victory (rear naked choke??)
Pick: Guida via 3rd Round Submission
