One has to feel for Joe Silva at the moment when it comes to the heavyweight division. With former champion Brock Lesnar fighting to save his career after another bout of diverticulitis and current champion Cain Velasquez out until the winter due to a torn rotator cuff the UFC has not been blessed with top quality heavyweight bouts this year.
While Strikeforce has been showcasing its deepest division with its Heavyweight World Grand Prix, the UFC has focused on developing new stars for the division that has set box office records over the past four years. Pat Barry, Matt Mitirone and Brendan Schaub have all impressed over the past few months, taking decisive steps forward in their careers with crucial victories against veteran opponents. However attention now turns back to the apex of the division with the first of two fights that will surely determine the championship picture in the UFC for the foreseeable future.
While next month’s match between Junior Dos Santos and Shane Carwin will determine who will next face Cain Velasquez for the world title, it seems almost inevitable that whoever emerges from UFC 130’s all-Vegas showdown between Frank Mir and Roy Nelson will be next in line after them for a world title shot. After all, unless the UFC is willing to throw the carefully matched Brendan Schaub in at the deep end there is simply no alternative. And that’s despite both men each having lost decisively to one of the men headlining UFC 131.
Roy Nelson should be a more controversial figure than he actually is, with many fans and commentators forgiving him for his eccentric behavior due to an engaging personality. But the reality is that Nelson has failed to fulfill what is usually held up as the number one duty of any athlete – to stay in optimum shape. Do not believe those who talk about how Nelson’s knows how to use his weight to best effect, his belly may trap Kimbo Slice but it destroys his conditioning and saps his dynamism. It also has the unwelcome side effect of forcing him into a heavyweight division for which he lacks the natural frame. At 5ft 11inches tall and with a reach of only 73inches he is (believe it or not) significantly undersized for a weight class that has become a veritable land of the giants.
Frank Mir knows what it’s like to be outmuscled by a bigger opponent, having been mauled by a 280Ibs Brock Lesnar at UFC 100. Mir responded to that setback by hitting the weights and bulking up to over 260Ibs, a weight that all reports suggest he will be in the vicinity of on Saturday night. How Mir can cope with the additional muscle mass is unproven, as both his victory over Cheick Kongo and his loss to Shane Carwin were so quick that we never saw his cardio tested.
So with a fight containing two fighters who’s conditioning is suspect, one has to hope that it’s all over before the action slows down to the glacial pace of Mir’s last fight against Mirko Cro Cop. Both Nelson and Mir are primarily known for their jiu-jitsu but neither has the wrestling to get the other down to the ground. Therefore the fight is likely to be a predominately standup affair with any grappling coming after one of the fighters has been knocked down. While Roy Nelson has genuine knock out power his boxing is unrefined and he’ll be at a heavy disadvantage due to his lack of height and reach. Look for the educated fighter Frank Mir to use his bigger frame to outwork Nelson from a distance with technically sound kickboxing while avoiding the danger posed by Nelson’s big right hand. Nelson may have showed tremendous punch resistance in his last fight against Junior Dos Santos but Mir has demonstrated against both Mirko Cro Cop and Cheick Kongo the ability to put away durable opponents. Expect Frank Mir to reaffirm his championship contender credentials by finishing Roy Nelson in the second half of their fight on Saturday.
Prediction: Frank Mir to defeat Roy Nelson via knockout in the second round
