After he seemingly won “The Ultimate Fighter” out of nowhere, Jonathan Brookins seemingly disappeared from the UFC. After contract issues and then injury issues left him on the sidelines, Brookins finally steps into the cage against a tough featherweight in Erik Koch. And it’s a really similar fight in that both fighters like the submission game but Koch has been showcasing improved standup lately.
Koch is on a three fight winning streak after losing to Chad Mendes and looks to be getting into the title picture with a victory over Brookins. The key to this fight is going to be his use of spacing and defensive wrestling. He’s been working Duke Roufus in Milwaukee with his striking and is showing that his hands are progressing to the point where his striking is almost as a good a weapon as his submission game. And it’s in his striking game where a victory will come into play.
Up until he stopped Francisco Rivera he ended nearly every fight with submissions and now has developed some highlight reel level striking. His KO power is a recent addition and has made him a stronger threat than before. He has to keep Brookins at a distance and make this into more of a kickboxing match than a wrestling match; if taken down he has to work on sweeps and getting up as quickly as he can, using scrambles to land strikes. His key to winning the fight is going to be his striking.
Brookins has one real way of winning; using his wrestling to grind out wins with the occasional submission thrown in. He’s become known for this throws out of the clinch; his wrestling game is based more out of the Greco-roman foundation than freestyle or folk-style. Brookins is good inside the clinch and works much of his takedowns that way. He’s going to have to get in close and keep Koch from landing the big strikes he’s known for. From there it’s a matter of getting the takedown and getting him to the ground, then keeping there.
Whether or not Brookins can get Koch down is going to decide this fight. The other factor is that he ends up taking a lot of punishment to get the takedown or into the clinch; Koch has KO power and if Brookins eats too much he’ll be out cold before he knows it.
Brookins key to win is fairly simple: get Koch to the ground and keep him there. If he can’t he’s looking at an early evening as Koch will probably knock him out. If he get him to the ground and keep him there he can probably grind out a decision. Look for the latter; Roufusport fighters haven’t had the strongest takedown defense lately, it seems, and I don’t see that trend ending anytime soon.
