Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications. There is no question that the replacement refs have certainly overstayed their welcome by this point, as evidenced by the Monday Night Football fiasco when they awarded a touchdown to the Seattle Seahawks that not only gave Seattle a win they didn’t deserve but also altered the course of people’s bets. Shame on you, NFL, for allowing these injustices to take place, and for making my job all the more difficult.
That being said, I was able to escape Week 3 with an 8-8 record against the spread, and with the way these games have been the first three weeks, I’ll take it and run…
Onto the breakdown!
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 3 BREKADOWN
WEEK 3 ATS: 8-8
WEEK 3 LOCKS ATS: 1-2
WEEK 3 H2H: 7-9
WEEK 3 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: Loss (Vikings def. Niners)
THIS SEASON ATS: 20-28
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 2-7
THIS SEASON H2H: 25-23
H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Texans (Week 1, Win)
Patriots (Week 2, Loss)
Niners (Week 3, Loss)
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 4 PICKS
Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().
*New feature: UNTOUCHABLE SPREAD OF THE WEEK — look for it below!
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
*H2H SURVIVOR PICK: BALTIMORE (-12.5) over Cleveland — I am so tempted to throw logic out the window with all of these games, since there really is no such thing as consistency right now in the NFL. However, despite all of the craziness surrounding the league, this is not the game to screw around with. Ravens win 30-14
*UNTOUCHABLE SPREAD OF THE WEEK: Tennessee (+12.5) over HOUSTON — The Texans have certainly looked unstoppable to start the season, and they remain my AFC Super Bowl pick. There is no love lost between these two teams, however, and if you’re looking for a crazy game where the replacement refs lose complete control, this may be the one. The Texans reach 4-0, but it’s not a complete cakewalk. At the same time, I wouldn’t touch this spread if I wasn’t picking every game. Texans win 31-24
*LOCK IT UP: San Diego (+0.5) over KANSAS CITY — I think there is excellent value here due to an overreaction from last week’s Chargers loss / Chiefs win. That gets corrected this week. Chargers win 20-17
ST. LOUIS (+2.5) over Seattle — I am calling this one for the Rams for no other reason than karmic retribution. That, and the Seahawks are not the same team on the road. Rams win 26-20
*LOCK IT UP: ATLANTA (-7.5) over Carolina — Thank you football gods for the Falcons this year, my beacon of consistency. Falcons win 38-20
San Francisco (-3.5) over NY JETS — One thing I know for sure is that while the Niners and Jets are both 2-1, they are heading in very different directions in 2012. And now that Darrelle Revis is out for the year, an already inconsistent and questionable New York team just got worse. San Francisco rebounds here despite the dreaded East Coast road trip for a game with 1:00 pm ET start time. Niners win 23-13
Minnesota (+3.5) over DETROIT — The Vikings really took it to San Francisco last week in a shocker. With Matthew Stafford suffering from a hamstring injury, I have to take the points here either way. Head to head, I’m calling this for the Lions in a close one. Lions win 19-16
BUFFALO (+4.5) over New England — The Bills look like a completely different team than the squad that got pounced on by the Jets in Week 1. They were able to beat New England last year, and with this Patriots team still reeling form last week’s crazy loss to the Ravens, I sense an upset in this spot. Everyone says the Pats just can’t fall to 1-3, but if you look around the league this year (Saints being 0-3, Packers 1-2, etc.), logic has to be thrown out of the window. Bills win 34-31
Miami (+6.5) over ARIZONA — The Arizona Cardinals kicking off the season with a 3-0 record is certainly one of the biggest surprises of 2012. While I think they have a very good chance of beating Miami to get to 4-0, the Dolphins do have some fight in them and they will certainly be stewing after last week’s nearly unfathomable loss to the division rival Jets. This will all add up to a field goal game. Cardinals win 23-20
Oakland (+6.5) over DENVER — The Raiders had absolutely no business beating the Steelers last week, but coming off that huge win to save their season, I think they will play a spirited game against a Broncos team that hasn’t quite figured out how to win so easily just yet. Broncos win 31-27
Cincinnati (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE — Don’t sleep on the Bengals. As for the Jags, well, I just need to see a little more before thinking they’re anything more than a mediocre team. Bengals win 28-19
New Orleans (+7.5) over GREEN BAY — I am not comfortable with this game at all. The Saints are obviously just not playing well, but at some point you figure they will show at least flashes of the juggernaut they used to be. Of course, the Packers are coming off the most bizarre loss of the year when the replacement refs screwed them over, so Green Bay goes into this game taking nothing for granted. The Packers could wind up blowing the Saints out of the water here, but I feel like New Orleans is going to have to play with pride at some point. As a result… Packers win 31-26
Washington (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY — How many games this year have we seen a low spread get covered by the underdogs in a one or two=point game? I have that kind of feeling about this one… Bucs win 28-27
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
*LOCK IT UP: NY Giants (+1.5) over PHILADELPHIA — If Philly turns the ball over against the Giants like they have in the first three games of the season, this won’t even be close. Eli Manning has been incredible the past six quarters he’s played, and the Giants defense will remain stout against Michael Vick and Company. Giants win 34-16
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Chicago (+3.5) over DALLAS — In a tight-knit, low-scoring game that I feel will be close, the points are the most attractive thing to take. The Cowboys win, but it’s another case of the low spread being covered by the underdogs. Cowboys win 17-14
Week 4 ATS Locks Recap: Chargers, Falcons, Giants
Week 4 H2H Survivor Pick: Ravens over Browns
Week 4 Untouchable Spread of the Week: Titans (+12.5) vs. TEXANS
That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.
See you next week – CB.
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