If John Lineker could actually make weight more than once in a row this would be a title fight against Demetrious Johnson, not an international UFC card against a hometown hero.
Fight Breakdown: One guy really loves choking dudes out. The other likes lamping them down. In a Brazilian vs. Brit matchup you’d think the Brit would love to throw hands against a Brazilian BJJ player but this is the opposite. John Lineker really likes punching people in the face whereas Phil Harris is much more of a ground expert.
This is a classic striker/grappler matchup, nothing more. Harris can’t stand for long with Lineker without eating some big punishment whereas Lineker’s ground game isn’t a weapon for him. He has a handful of submissions but his bread gets buttered with his boxing. He’s looking to throw bombs, throw them early and go home.
Lineker has big time power in his hands, which makes him unique for a division known for decisions and technical ability. He’s going to want to keep it standing and make this a boxing match. He’s going in wanting to sprawl and brawl, nothing more, and look for his gameplan to reflect keeping it on his feet. He can finish Harris, or take a decision, by out landing him on his feet.
Harris is going to have to make this bowling shoe ugly to pull off the win. His game plan is to get him either against the cage or down to the ground, properly, to work his ground game. I wouldn’t be shocked if he pulled guard in close, et al, or did the Frank Mir style “double leg shot into a guard pull” to get this to the ground. Harris has decent hands but he’s not good enough to stand with Lineker and win.
Why it matters: Lineker should be fighting for a title but he’s here because making weight has been an issue for him since he got into the UFC. In two of his four fights in the UFC he’s missed the 125 lb. limit for a variety of reasons and that’s why, despite being an exciting fighter who deserves a title shot, he’s going to languish until he can make it before a finish victory. If he makes 126, and finishes Harris, odds are he has either John Dodson or the McCall/Jorgensen winner in a title eliminator or a title shot proper. He just needs a big win and he needs to make weight. Ultimately that’s what’s holding him back and I’m shocked he hasn’t been hooked up with someone like Mike Dolce by the UFC.
Harris wins and it’s a relative upset, of course, but in the flyweight division he could only be a win after this for a title shot.
Prediction: Lineker
