In a reshuffling of the main card that saw Charlie Brenneman vs. Beneil Dariush being moved to the prelims, recent Flyweight title challenger John Moraga faces relative newcomer Dustin Ortiz in what is only Ortiz’ second fight in the UFC. Moraga himself is coming off of a loss to champion Demetrious Johnson in what was only his third fight in the UFC, while Ortiz found a way to finish Jose Maria Tome in his UFC debut.
Fighter Summary
John Moraga (13-2 overall, 2-1 UFC)
Strengths: Submissions, ground and pound, tons of heart
Weaknesses: Lack of elite quickness
Dustin Ortiz (12-2 overall, 1-0 UFC)
Strengths: Well-rounded, KO power
Weaknesses: Has not faced top shelf quality opponents
Fight Breakdown – Both of these guys have decent stand-up, but neither of them is likely to floor the other guy with a single punch or kick. It could happen of course, but very unlikely. No, what we are likely to see is a display of striking to set up takedowns and a number of reversals on the ground and in the clinch.
Moraga and Ortiz have similar styles. Moraga is very good at utilizing his strikes to find a way to drag guys down to the ground, then employ ground and pound to find an opening so he can sneak in a submission. He’s a grinder that will capitalize on opponents making a mistake and leaving a hole in their ground defense. If the opponent protects against all submission attempts, then Moraga will continue with the ground and pound.
Ditto for Ortiz. The same exact thing could be said for him. He’s a grinder, and is comfortable on his feet, but his preference will be to take Moraga down and rain down some shots on him, opening him up to possible submission attempts. His debut is about all you could expect from him, he was a hyped fighter coming from a well-known camp in Roufusport, training alongside the likes of Anthony and Sergio Pettis. And he ended up finishing his opponent to earn a crack at one of the best fighters in the division. He’s faced Ian McCall before and has come a long way since then, but Moraga is a different animal and will be his toughest opponent in almost three years. It’s going to be a big test for him and he may feel some pressure to play it safe, which is exactly what he shoudn’t do.
Moraga is the type of guy to smell fear and weakness, and he’ll pursue that and turn momentum in his favor in a hurry. Ortiz has to take the fight to him and be the aggressor, he needs to be the Clay Guida of old and swarm on Moraga to keep him on his heels and not give him a chance to breathe. A few rushing charges with hands flying could work well and keep Moraga off balance. That will give him a much better chance to win the fight. Being hesitant and playing the wait and see approach will not likely work in his favor.
Moraga on the other hand, has to stay patient and stick to his game plan. He’s going to be the favorite here, but he has to stay focused. Going four rounds against Johnson probably did wonders for his experience and confidence, even though he lost. He’s fought for the UFC title before and more or less held his own against the champ until the submission. Fighting a guy as talented as Ortiz should still be another day at the office for Moraga, after facing Johnson. But he can’t let Ortiz get too comfortable or else the underdog will quickly steal a round or two and Moraga will be scracthing his head, wondering what happened.
Key to Victory: Who can maintain top position?
This fight will undoubtedly play out on the ground and the key will be who is the guy initiating and earning the takedowns and who is able to make the most of it. Both of them are capable grapplers, and very talented ground and pound/submission guys. It really could go either way and it probably will numerous times, so whoever can gain the edge in top control has the best chance of getting his hand raised come fight’s end.
Why It Matters – Ortiz is currently ranked 15th in the UFC’s Flyweight division. He gets the #4 guy in only his second fight. This highlights three things: first, the UFC must think very highly of Ortiz. Makes sense considering his fight history and record, and the camp that he trains in. Second, Ortiz can leapfrog a ton of guys by beating Moraga. If he wins impressively, he can leapfrog even more. Moraga fought Johnson after winning twice in the UFC and his record is almost identical to that of Ortiz. That means Ortiz could be looking at a potential title shot, depending on the outcome of this fight. And third, it also highlights the desperate need for some depth in terms of the quality of opponents in the Flyweight division. It’s not that guys like Moraga and Ortiz aren’t deserving of title shots, it’s just that they aren’t built up enough and aren’t quite ready for it yet.
Johnson has already convincingly dispatched of top contenders and indeed, has already rematched two of the top guys in Ian McCall and Joseph Benavidez. John Dodson is probably closest to earning a shot now, as he has by far put the champion in the deepest waters of his career as a Flyweight. But John Lineker is right there with him, if he can make the blasted weight comfortably. Other than that, we’re not likely to see another McCall or Benavidez matchup anytime soon. Really, Ortiz has a huge opportunity here to make a splash and all he would need is a big win here and maybe one more and he could be the next challenger.
Moraga himself isn’t too far out of the picture either, as long as he emerges victorious and keeps beating all other comers. He can do what Benavidez did and beat anyone else the UFC puts in front of him to earn another date with Mighty Mouse.
The division is very much like the Women’s Bantamweight. The opportunities to make a big move are there for the taking, but the fighters have to win. Losing isn’t exactly the end of the world, as some of the higher ranked fighters are coming off of losses. But wins catapult them into contender status. Ortiz might be ready for it, but he’ll have to get through Moraga to do it. Moraga may be just a bit much for him at this point though and it will show.
Prediction – Moraga
