Heavyweight prospects in the past 12 months have seemingly all failed when they’ve tried to go from prospect to contender (outside of Travis Browne). And seemingly most of them have been stopped by Gabriel Gonzaga, as well, and now he gets yet another fledging contender in Stipe Miocic. Finishes of both Dave Herman and Shawn Jordan have put Gonzaga back where he was right before he fought Mirko Cro-Cop: on the verge of getting a second crack at UFC gold.
Fight breakdown – For a long time Gonzaga was known as a BJJ wunderkind who fell in love with his hands for good reason: he was knocking out plenty of dudes and didn’t have to use his grappling pedigree. Gonzaga, who has one of the best BJJ pedigrees in the heavyweight division, lit guys up with his hands and feet to the point where his ground game was an afterthought.
But then again when you knock out one of the most feared strikers in MMA with a head kick you’d get pretty confident in your striking too.
Gonzaga will be comfortable wherever this goes but he’s a fighter who fights one of two distinct ways. He either wants the fight on the ground in the worst way possible or he wants to take someone’s head off. He can finish fights either way, of course, but the version of Gonzaga we see Saturday night will be an interesting one for sure.
Miocic has a fairly simple game and strength: his hands and his movement. He took apart Roy Nelson with movement and combinations and I expect him to do something similar here. He can stop Gonzaga with one shot, most likely, but Gonzaga’s ability to do the same is going to make Miocic stick and move more than normal. He’ll look to stay away from the ground game, as Miocic’s submission skills pale in comparison, and look to win the fight on his feet.
Why it matters – Miocic is the latest of contenders that need a win here for the UFC’s heavyweight division to seem like it has some new faces in it. Whenever a new prospect comes along they can’t seem to get past the old guard and Miocic needs to buck that trend. A win here and he’s a fight away from a title shot, most likely, because of how shallow the division is. He’s still young enough to rebound from a loss here to get into the title picture but his ceiling is coming into focus. Miocic looks to be a guy who could be elite … or could be a Ryan Bader, always on the cusp of the Top 5 but never entering into the picture, as well. This will be a good defining fight to see where he most likely winds up for the long term.
Gonzaga is the distance from a title shot but in a much different place. He’s near the end of his career, not the beginning, and a loss here probably removes him from the title picture permanently if it’s a bad stoppage. Gonzaga is a great talent but the door is closing in on him fighting for a title again. He has to win here to stay relevant.
Prediction – Gonzaga
