UFC 171 begins a new era in the UFC: the post GSP era of welterweight action. GSP may come out of his pseudo-retirement but I’m tending to lean in the direction that he’ll be announcing a permanent retirement sometime by the end of 2014. In the meantime the man that many thought beat him for the title is going to get another crack at taking UFC gold properly … but he’ll be facing a guy who mimics him in many ways. Throw in a de facto title eliminator underneath and one of the best top to bottom fight cards (on paper) we’ve had in some time and UFC 171 is turning into what could be the early candidate for fight card of the year.
Johny Hendricks vs. Robbie Lawler
I love both these guys for the exact same reason; they’re a couple of heavy handed sluggers who love to punch people and wrestle. There’s a caveman mentality to how both fight; it’s kind of grab and smash. There’s two key thoughts to understanding this fight.
1. Johny Hendricks is the true king of the mountain of UFC’s 170 lb. division
I scored it 48-47 GSP … but I can see it both ways. Hendricks can rightfully justify that his title fight should’ve been scored for him and there was enough controversy I could’ve seen an immediate rematch with GSP. GSP’s walking away from the UFC and MMA for a while made the point moot and now the pressure is on him. He’s walking in to this fight in many eyes as the de facto champ of the division.
2. Robbie Lawler’s career resurgence has led him to fulfilling his largely untapped potential
Lawler was supposed to be the next great welterweight ten years ago … and largely he’s shown flashes of greatness up until his return to the UFC (and return to welterweight). The KO loss to Nick Diaz changed the course of his career in a pronounced way and now, 11 years after it happened, it’s now starting to come back to that point before UFC 47.
I think this is going to resemble Hendricks/Condit in that Hendricks is going to stand as long as he has to, get the occasional takedown and grind on top position to get a win. If he says “forget that wrestling nonsense” and decides he wants to trade leather … we could be in for a firefight for the ages. Either way I think he’s just too good for Lawler.
The Pick – Hendricks
Carlos Condit vs. Tyron Woodley
Carlos Condit’s biggest weakness, his takedown defense, happens to be Tyron Woodley’s biggest asset. Condit’s a nightmare off his back though and Woodley has never had to deal with top control against one of the toughest guards in the division. Condit’s got a huge gas tank and in five rounds he’d have a huge advantage over Woodley … but this is three and Woodley has an advantage in that. Condit’s a savage finisher, though, and has the sort of chin to absorb the big hands that Woodley can throw.
It’ll certainly make for an interesting match up, that’s for sure, as Woodley has in front of him the ultimate test of his ceiling. If he’s going to be elite he’s going to have to win here, or make it insanely close, as his vast athletic potential can only take him so far. Woodley’s ceiling so far has looked like he could be a world champion … but the time is closing in on whether or not he’ll hit that level of greatness.
The Pick – Condit
Diego Sanchez vs. Myles Jury
What a perfectly designed fight for both guys. Is Sanchez good enough to make another run at a title shot vs. the ability of Myles Jury to become a contender are two excellent big picture storylines to think of … and the fact that both fighters are in position to answer both of those questions against one another is perfection in matchmaking.
The fight is going to fall onto two things: Sanchez’s ability to say “eff this” and go crazy in the third and Jury’s ability to not play into Sanchez’s brawling game. Jury has long been a great prospect who had a bunch of bad things happen to him. He would’ve been the favorite in the ill-fated Lesnar/JDS TUF season … if he hadn’t blown out his knee early on. It took him a while to get back to form, too, including another season of TUF where he still was recovering from that knee injury.
Now, at 5-0 in the UFC, Jury is looking like he’s ready for a Top 10 opponent with a win. He’d be perfect for the winner of Donald Cerrone vs. Edson Barboza with a win here and I think he pulls it off. I love Sanchez but I think the fight with Melendez exposed what had been happening to him because of his style; he’s eaten too many shots and over a long career he’s showing huge signs of being shopworn. I think Jury lights him up and finishes him sometime in the second.
The Pick – Jury
Jake Shields vs. Hector Lombard
This is either going to be a fun little fight between a grappler and a striker … or an awful, minimal activity fight. Then again the last time Shields faced someone with quality grappling credentials and a nuclear bomb of a right hand he wound up going unconscious … so this is a total crap shoot of what could happen. I have Lombard here … but this is one of the few fights I have genuinely no clue on what’ll happen.
The Pick – Lombard
Ovince St. Preux vs. Nikita Krylov
Krylov looked like the ultimate waste of a roster space in the UFC after getting thrashed by Soa Paleilei … and then came out and thumped a genuine prospect in Walt Harris in short order. Now, cutting to 205 after being a tiny heavyweight, Krylov is coming in on short notice against a notoriously flaky opponent. Everything says pick OSP … but I think we start off with an upset special.
The Pick – Krylov
Kevin Gastelum > Rick Story
Raquel Pennington > Jessica Andrade
Dennis Bermudez > Jimy Hettes
Sean Spencer > Alex Garcia
Renee Forte > Frank Trevino
Will Campuzano > Justin Scoggins
Robert “Bubba” McDaniel > Sean Strickland
Daniel Pineda < Robert Whiteford
