Ever since the UFC bought Strikeforce the one fight fans have been aching to see is Nick Diaz vs. Georges St. Pierre. Diaz was in the same position that Jake Shields was after the latter departed to the UFC: the best welterweight (and perhaps the best fighter) outside the UFC. Now, after injuries and shenanigans have delayed this fight, it arrives this weekend. The pride of Stockton, CA, meets Canada’s national hero for the UFC welterweight title.
Fight Breakdown: For a fight of this magnitude there’s such a clear dichotomy of skills and styles that it becomes so much more fun to watch.
Diaz functions in two ways: off his back in grappling and with his slap boxing game on his feet. Diaz doesn’t throw kicks or go for takedowns; his game plan is stand throw until he can wear his opponent down from the sheer volume of punches. If/When he does get taken down he’s got an exceptionally deadly bottom game. The one thing that accurately sums up Diaz is that he’s always looking for the finish, not winning by points. He’ll give up position if it means getting something to finish the fight with. He has high level BJJ from anywhere with some slick transitions to finishes. Diaz is a wonder to watch work off his back; he’s one of the few in MMA who’s as deadly in that spot as he is in top position.
His guard is deadly and he has two distinct physical advantages over most opponents: his incredible durability and his ability to push the hardest pace in MMA. Diaz never gasses, not even when he’s pushed the pace for 25 minutes, and it’s a distinct advantage he has. Diaz is going to come out against GSP and throw tons of punches, pushing a pace meant to wear down the champion over time. One thing that’s also been a constant is a lack of a full striking game; he doesn’t use kicks all that often and rarely checks them, either. He relies primarily on being able to walk guys down, throw hands and push such a ridiculous pace that he wins by attrition.
His strategy will be the same as it always is; throw hands and fight where his opponent wants to go. He’s used to fighting 25 minutes, as well, so the five rounds won’t be new territory for him either. He’s been there before and won’t gas or get nerves from being in a title fight either.
GSP has developed his game over the years to the point where he doesn’t resemble the guy who made his debut at UFC 46. He went from being a first rate striker with a Kyokushin karate background into a wrestling based kick-boxer with a stifling top positional game. GSP has evolved to such a drastic degree with his wrestling that you’d think he’d been in wrestling rooms since he was a child. I’ve wrestled against guys with high level backgrounds, including a pair of future NCAA champions as well as a handful of other guys who wrestled at the Division 1 level, and the things GSP has done to his takedown game are things you rarely see from someone who didn’t have an extensive wrestling background.
Look for him to follow two fights that showed how to beat the Diaz brothers: Nick vs. Carlos Condit and Nate vs. Benson Henderson. Condit frustrated Diaz with movement and made that work against him. Henderson used similar kicks to set up takedowns and some stifling top positional work. He’s going to do a combination of both; frustrate him just enough on feet to get him more aggressive than he should be and plant him on the mat for most of the round.
This is going to be GSP embracing the grind and maintaining top position.
Look for GSP to do a combination of both; he’ll throw kicks and keep his distance and when Diaz gets overly aggressive plant him on his back and work out of top position. Look for him to work outside singles and “run the pipe” to get him down as well; Diaz is great off his back in transition when you double him down and give him something to work with. GSP will most likely work from the outside and work to keep Diaz from grabbing something while he’s being taken down; GSP’s top positional work is exceptional and he’s going to give Nick Diaz mat burns from how often he has him on his back.
Why It Matters: It’s for the welterweight title, which means a ton for both guys of course. But the title is secondary in a lot of ways for both guys.
For Diaz it’s a matter of that final level of respect. It’s easy to dig on Diaz, and his record, since he left the UFC. He has been fed a steady diet of guys without wrestling pedigrees and abilities. During his last run in the UFC he lost to anyone with a good top positional game and beating GSP, with a wrestling base, would wipe that right off the map. On top of that he finally gets the designation of being the best fighter on the planet at 170 lbs, something he’s never had since he didn’t have a run at that weight class in the UFC.
GSP gains more than just keeping his title for another day with a win. This one is personal; he may be a professional in public but you can tell there’s something about Diaz he dislikes on a personal level. GSP has been someone who promoted anyone he faced as a tough challenge (and didn’t hand pick his opponents) and now has thrown some leverage to get THIS fight. It was a move he never has done before and probably won’t do again; he’s the definition of professionalism in terms of how he’s worked with the UFC. The fact that he said “I like Johny Hendricks but I want to put a beating on Nick Diaz” shows how much he dislikes Diaz; this isn’t a money decision for GSP. He’s made an insane amount of money in the UFC and MMA over the years to the point where he doesn’t have to fight again if he didn’t want to. It might be a bigger fight but GSP has gotten big paydays out of guys like Hendricks before. This is a fight where he wants to make a statement, that allows him to shut up someone he feels disrespected him.
Prediction: GSP
