Welcome back to another Bootleg Guy multi-part sports piece here on Inside Pulse.
You might remember me from such fan-friendly features as That Bootleg Guy’s Worst 25 Fans in Sports. If not, then surely you must’ve read one of the ten parts of That Bootleg Guy’s Hall of Fame 100, where I passed HOF judgment on, well”¦100 past and present players.
Doesn’t ring a bell?
How about That Bootleg Guy’s 20 Short Stories on 20 Baseball Games or IP’s 2006 Baseball Preview columns? Well, if you liked any of those and still think I have a shred of credibility, then you’ll like what you’re about to read.
Y’see, every year about this time, all of the baseball “experts” try to drop their Hot Stove Knowledge just before they go into hibernation for the winter. In fact, last year, ESPN studio analyst and former Major League general manager Steve Phillips listed the top 50 free agents heading into the offseason, along with predictions on where each would end up.
That’s a .180 batting average for those scoring at home.
Now, my credentials are decidedly less impressive, but I’m pretty sure I can get at least 10 out of 50 without even trying. So, consider this an open challenge to that plastic-faced, prematurely gray Steve Phillips. I’m spending the next five days listing 50 free agents and I’ll tell you where each man is likely to land.
That breaks down to 10 names per day and all I need is to hit on 20% of them to beat Studio Steve. Now, this isn’t a “top 50 free agents” list since I’m sure I’m going to miss a few names. And, I’ve done my best to not include players who have player or team options for 2007 that will almost certainly be picked up (Gary Sheffield, por ejemplo).
Just remember”¦you heard it here first.
Frank Thomas – DH: During the course of his 16-year career, The Big Hurt was often criticized as a selfish, stats-driven, money-grubbing clubhouse cancer. Then, after one season in the Oakland A’s white spikes (39 HRs, .926 OPS), he’s a fun-loving, team first guy? Sorry, I don’t buy it. There’s lots of talk in the Bay Area that Thomas is “close” to signing a 2-year deal in Oakland for $12-$14M, but that would be lunacy for a 38-year-old who’s put up one healthy n’ productive season since 2004. (Prediction: Signs with Detroit Tigers, 2 years/$15M)
Barry Zito – LHP: Despite averaging 15 wins/season in his 7-year career and winning the 2002 Cy Young Award, Zito is the softest “ace” in the game today. His walk rate has steadily increased each year, while his strikeouts have gone the other direction. Zito rarely pitches past the sixth or seventh inning and his whole “wacky, eccentric, cerebral” lefty schtick won’t last two months in a big-market baseball town. Don’t do it, Omar Minaya. Don’t do it. (Prediction: Signs with New York Mets, 4 years/$52M)
Chan Ho Park – RHP: After signing what was arguably the worst free agent contract in Major League history, the erstwhile Rangers flop was perfectly serviceable for the Padres in 2006, before a life-threatening intestinal problem dogged him for the final six weeks of the season. Park looked absolutely emaciated during the Pads NLDS defeat and it’s hard to see where a mediocre 33-year-old fits on any major league roster this offseason. (Prediction: Signs with San Francisco Giants, Minor League Contract)
Ted Lilly – LHP: He’s been better than you might think, averaging 12 wins/season in the last four years with a decent K rate. After kicking his manager’s ass in the clubhouse during a game over the summer, he’s assured of a new address in 2007. He’s made several public comments about returning to the Bay Area with the Giants, but the thought here is that he’ll end up on the other side of the bridge. (Prediction: Signs with Oakland A’s, 3 years/$22M)
Mark Loretta – 2B: His offensive (OBP n’ SLG) numbers weren’t helped by the move from spacious Petco Park to doubles-friendly Fenway. Top prospect Dustin Pedroia put up a .384 OBP at AAA Pawtucket in 2006, but at 22-years-old, it’s conceivable that the Sox bring back the veteran Loretta for one more season as insurance, in the event that Pedroia needs more seasoning. (Prediction: Re-signs with Boston Red Sox, 1 year/$5M)
Mike Piazza – C: Several times during the season, Piazza publicly stated that former Padres manager Bruce Bochy was the best manager he ever played for. As a former catcher, Bochy seemed to push all the right buttons when it came to Piazza’s playing time and scheduled days off. With Bochy now in San Francisco, Piazza would be a good fit to share time with Eliezer Alfonzo behind the dish. (Prediction: Signs with San Francisco Giants, 1 year/$5M)
Dave Roberts – LF: There’s been a lot of controversy here in San Diego over the Padres willingness to let Roberts walk this offseason. His two best years have come in a Padres uniform, but he’ll be 35 next season with declining defensive skills and a penchant for injuries (he’s never played more than 129 games in a season). The Pads are as much about public relations as they are about winning. And, with their actual and expected personnel losses this winter, they’ll appease their indifferent fans here. (Prediction: Re-signs with San Diego Padres, 1 years/$3.5M)
Alfonso Soriano – LF: Buyer beware. Soriano put up career highs all over the board in 2006, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 and almost assured of being a financial albatross if he’s signed for more than two or three years. A Rafael Furcal-type of contract (low years, high dollars) could buy a contender a couple of playoff berths, but all signs point to one of two perennially stupid teams paying Alf until his late 30s for contributing to five or six 80-win seasons. I’m sure the Orioles will overspend elsewhere. (Prediction: Signs with Chicago Cubs, 5 years/$75M)
Jeff Weaver – RHP: Before the season, I called Weaver’s signing (with the Angels) one of the most underrated acquisitions of the year. He was unloaded in early July after putting up an ERA over 6.00, then scuffled in St. Louis during the regular season, before pitching (and winning) the World Series clinching game over Detroit. Now, that’s what I call vindication. I always knew you had it in you scruffy, unwashed little white boy, you. His agent is Scott Boras, so it’s possible that this prediction could be multiplied by four or five. (Prediction: Re-signs with St. Louis Cardinals, 2 years/$8M)
Barry Bonds – LF: And so, after 21 seasons of burning every bridge in baseball while inarguably and indelibly changing the way the game was played”¦it’s come down to this: A guy who finished the year with a .454 OBP and .545 SLG will likely have to beg for work this winter. Poetic justice? Well, let’s just say that all that’s missing is Maya Angelou reading some of her pretentious poetry in the background. “Barry Bonds, head like the angry Black moon that was once with the Sun. Evil incarnate”¦the new Unicron!” (Prediction: Goes Unsigned, Retires)
