With the 2 hour season finale of Lost a few hours away, it appears likely that one of the main characters could be in jeopardy as in killed off. The series has not been shy about killing off characters, most notably all of the Tailies except for Bernard, but never have one of the top few protagonists been killed.
Death on Lost Island doesn’t always seem arbitrary often or most of the time, when a character we know or have seen flashbacks for dies, it is because something about their personal journey or personal redemption has been resolved. We can use this history as well as plot twists and hints to determine who may or may not be next in the Lost Death Pool, specifically in the Season 3 Finale.
Keep in mind that I’m writing this at a time after the second to last episode, but before the finale, and I’m not a fan of online spoilers, so I haven’t heard either way if any or none of these characters does indeed die.
Jack
Jack emerged as the leader of the castaways from day 1, and despite some recent lack of confidence, has maintained that position for three seasons. Jack had his chance to escape the island aborted by Locke, who blew up the submarine back to the mainland. Jack has since teamed up with Juliet, which has caused tension, as she may or may not still be working for Ben (although signs in the show are pointing towards not). The brains behind the attack on the Others planned for the Season 3 finale, Jack left execution of the plan to Sayid, as he led the rest of the group to the Radio Tower for potential rescue.
Why He Might Die
It’s often stated that Jack was originally planned to be killed off in the pilot, although since then he has been the “star” of the show (if there was one). We’ve seen a good amount of Jack’s backstory, including his father and his wife. The story of his father is somewhat complete, and the relationship with his wife has been somewhat fleshed out as well. Perhaps his proclamation of his love for Kate could lead to the closure his character needs in the relationship department.
Why He Can’t Die Yet
As leader of the castaways, Jack’s journey does not seem complete unless there is some sort of rescue. The only castaways to be rescued so far are Michael and Walt, and it’s unclear whether they were truly allowed to go home. With three seasons left, it’s unlikely that a large amount of people will be rescued in the finale, so it seems like Jack still has work to do for his people and for himself.
Odds of Death: 12:1
Sawyer
The con man has evolved from a purely selfish character hoarding the supplies and guns into a productive member of the camp. He was helpful in the investigation surrounding the deaths of Nicki and Paulo. Hurley instilled some honor and depth to Sawyer’s character with his tease of Sawyer being voted out of the camp, and Sawyer was revealed to be a good person down deep. Sawyer emerged as more of a leader as Season 3 went on, confronting Jack with the tape given to him by Locke.
Why He Might Die
Locke brought Sawyer to kill his father, and after realizing that Locke’s father conned his family and created his name and con-man persona, Sawyer did just that. The cause of Sawyer’s negative past has been extinguished, leaving him somewhat vindicated. In addition, his tough exterior has been breached, both by Kate in the love department and by Hurley in caring for others in the camp. Sawyer could have a last stand in the finale that has him save Kate or someone else from the camp, which would serve as his final vindication.
Why He Can’t Die Yet
The love triangle with Sawyer, Kate and Jack has not yet been fully realized, although that could change in the finale. Sawyer is also one of the most popular characters on the show, so it seems like an odd decision to kill him off.
Odds of Death: 2:1
Sayid
Sayid has been a consistent leader for the castaways, taking charge with the recent helicopter crash and doubting and later supporting Jack’s plan for the finale. Sayid’s strength and experience helps the camp in numerous ways, including his recent work with Nadia’s satellite phone, the strategy to take out the Others and the plan send out a distress signal. This season we have seen more into his past, including his capture and subsequent release by the woman he tortured, giving him a second chance on life and apparently changing his outlook.
Why He Might Die
Going head to head with the Others hasn’t been the most successful strategy for the castaways in the past, although few have actually died. This is an offensive against a group of 10 of the combative others, who have instructions to kill. Only Bernard, Rousseau and Sayid are scheduled at this point to stay behind for the attack, so all three are natural candidates for a possible season finale death.
Why He Can’t Die Yet
Sayid, despite being a torturer in his past, has become the moral compass of the castaways, able to differentiate between good and evil, truth and lies. He plays an important part in the dynamic of the castaways that would be difficult to replace. His relationship with Shannon was cut short, and we have yet to fully understand why he was on the flight or what happened to him later in his past life.
Odds of Death: 15:1
Kate
Surprisingly the only female castaway on my depth chart of major characters, Kate has been a central figure in the show’s events since the beginning. This season Kate consummated a relationship with Sawyer despite apparent feelings for Jack. Even with her pairing with Sawyer and Jack’s with Juliet, Kate defied Sayid and some other castaways and told Jack about the helicopter crash and Nadia’s presence in the camp. Kate has been through a lot this season, but hasn’t changed or grown much as a character.
Why She Might Die
Feeling spurned by Jack, Kate ran to Sawyer and literally jumped him, despite both knowing where her true feelings lied. If the finale provides resolution to her relationship with Jack, it’s possible she would sacrifice her own life to save his, to repay his sacrifice to allow her and Sawyer to escape the Other’s camp earlier in the season.
Why She Can’t Die Yet
The fact that she has been through so much but hasn’t show as much character development as Charlie, Locke, Sawyer and others seems to indicate that it’s not her time to die, as she has unresolved storylines in both her past and present.
Odds of Death: 18:1
Locke
The last we saw John Locke, he was laying in a pit with the decaying corpses of the Dharma Initiative. Locke was shot in the torso, although it was unclear if the shot actually killed him. Locke’s motives are still somewhat unclear, as on the surface it seems like he has joined the Others to find answers to his own questions, but still helped the camp by giving Sawyer the tape of Juliet and Ben.
Why He Might Die
Shot and left for dead, Ben made a comment that maybe Jacob could save Locke. The dynamic between whatever Jacob is, and whoever Locke is, might play a pivotal role in the finale or seasons to come. If the conclusion of that story arc comes in the finale, it might be Locke’s time to die.
Why He Can’t Die Yet
Assuming he’s not dead yet, Locke had more questions raised than answers given by his meeting with Jacob, the phantom power behind the island. Having seen and heard Jacob, even slightly, scared Ben to the point where he murdered him, or at least believed he did. While we did find out why Locke was in a wheelchair this season, we still have no real explanation as to why he can suddenly walk on the island. The powers of the island, and the mysteries of the Others have become intertwined with Locke’s journey, and without the full realization of what the Island is and can do, Locke cannot yet die.
Odds of Death: 30:1
Charlie
Charlie’s life has been in jeopardy in nearly every episode he’s been in this season, with Desmond having visions of his death over and over again. The second to last episode of Season 3 was a recap of Charlie’s life’s five greatest moments, but didn’t reveal much new about his past history that wasn’t covered in earlier flashbacks.
Why He Might Die
A major story arc of season 3 has been Charlie’s near death encounters, prevented only by Desmond’s interference. Without Desmond to interfere in this final vision (Charlie knocked him out to make sure he wouldn’t), signs point to Charlie dying in the finale somehow in the Looking Glass. Charlie also gave his family heirloom ring to Aaron (even though it was left at the camp) and finally has kicked drugs and settled into a relationship of sorts with Claire.
Why He Can’t Die Yet
The swerve has become the norm in Lost, so when Desmond says Charlie is definitely going to die this time, it’s show code for “he’s not going to die”. Desmond’s vision saw Charlie pressing the button but didn’t account for the people in the underwater hatch, so either the vision is wrong/changed or the drowning Desmond foretold of happens after Charlie was approached by gun-wielding Others.
Odds of Death: 3:2
Desmond
Although he was only introduced in Season 2, Desmond has become one of the show’s central characters, and has played a key part in the events leading up to the finale. His visions of the future have impacted many storylines, including the helicopter crash and Charlie’s trip to the Looking Glass station at the end of last week. Desmond is also the only character not from Oceanic Flight 815, as he was originally manning the button in the hatch.
Why He Might Die
Desmond himself brought up the theory that maybe he sees Charlie’s repeated death because he is meant to take Charlie’s place and die to save the camp. The fact that he was not on the plane shrouds him in mystery could he be working with the Others somehow? Did he know more about the Looking Glass Hatch than he let on to Charlie? If Desmond turns out somehow to turn on the castaways, he could meet his untimely demise.
Why He Can’t Die Yet
Desmond is the only character among the castaways that we know has someone actively looking for him Penelope has commissioned both the crashed helicopter as well as the Russian explorers seen in the season 2 finale to find Desmond’s whereabouts. He has a number of unresolved stories, including the real reason behind his visions and his ongoing relationship with Penelope. While I generally don’t think that he could be working with the Others or against the camp in some way, it doesn’t seem to make much sense in the story, although they could explain it with flashbacks and other storyline fill-ins.
Odds of Death: 8:1
Hurley
The clown prince of the Lost castaways has seen a somewhat reduced role in season 3 after returning from the Other’s camp to begin the season. He has mostly provided comic relief, although played a pivotal role in the growth of Sawyer’s character as well as the Charlie/Desmond storyline.
Why He Might Die
Hurley has been a loyal friend to many of the castaways, and with some big happenings going down in the finale (supposedly), he could be involved in something serious.
Why He Can’t Die Yet
With so much happening to all the other major characters, Hurley was somewhat left out this year, and seems to have much more room to grow and change. In addition, his role with the castaways isn’t easily replaced, and he would leave a gaping hole in the camp both literally and figuratively.
Odds of Death: 50:1
With so much up in the air for the huge 2 hour season finale, anything could happen that would impact any number of the main characters. This is not including some of the main characters introduced last season, including Ben and Juliet, as well as the other Others and some of the minor castaways.
Only 3 seasons and 48 episodes remain for Lost, meaning that the story is more than half over, so something major is bound to happen in the finale to move things along. With my reasonable guesses out of the way, the only thing left to do is watch and see what happens and then of course spend six months speculating on what happens next.
– Lost airs on ABC on Wednesday nights at 10 p.m. ET/PT with the third season finale airing on May 23.
– Lost airs on the CTV network in Canada on Wednesday nights….
