2 surprises in the top 10 this week, along with the same ol’ top 3…
These aren’t your typical rankings; I look at record, run differential, and farm system. I weigh the scores on all 3; record makes up half the score, the run differential makes up a third of the score, and a sixth of the score is from farm system.
For Run Differential, I use the Pythagorean Theorem formulated by Bill James to see what a teams record should be; you can predict how well a team should be playing by this. In theory, a team should be in about the same range for their Pythagorean Record as their true record.
| Rank | Team | Record | Pythagorean | System | Total | Last Week | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
TB Rays | 30 | 30 | 27 | 59 | 1 |
| The Rays are looking like a juggernaut; will they be able to hang on as the season progresses? | |||||||
| 2 |  |
NY Yankees | 29 | 29 | 9 | 51 | 2 |
| No matter what the Yankees do, they can’t catch the Rays. | |||||||
| 3 |  |
Minnesota Twins | 28 | 27 | 14 | 51 | 3 |
| Written off after Joe Nathan’s injury, the Twins are owning the AL Central | |||||||
| 4 |  |
San Diego Padres | 27 | 28 | 2 | 46 | 4 |
| The biggest surprise of the season is still hanging on; now with the best record in the NL. | |||||||
| 5 |  |
Philadelphia Phillies | 26 | 26 | 4 | 45 | 5 |
| This team looks good, even with missing former MVP Jimmy Rollins. | |||||||
| 6 |  |
STL Cardinals | 25 | 24 | 8 | 44 | 6 |
| A bad sweep at the hands of the Astros; Brendan Ryan is not an everyday player. | |||||||
| 7 |  |
Texas Rangers | 24 | 23 | 13 | 44 | 7 |
| The Rangers are starting to pull away from the pack; young pitcher Derek Holland is back in the rotation. | |||||||
| 8 |  |
Toronto Blue Jays | 20 | 20 | 24 | 41 | 8 |
| The Blue Jays have to be considering a promotion for Brett Wallace, especially with Lyle Overbay struggling. | |||||||
| 9 |  |
Detroit Tigers | 23 | 17 | 15 | 39 | 9 |
| Detroit holds a strong second at this point, but can’t gain ground on the Twins. | |||||||
| 10 |  |
Cincinnati Reds | 21 | 13 | 28 | 39 | 10 |
| Making a push for first; half a game back of the Cardinals. | |||||||
| 11 |  |
San Francisco Giants | 19 | 25 | 1 | 36 | 11 |
| The Giants are considering using Aubrey Huff in the outfield so they can promote Buster Posey. | |||||||
| 12 |  |
NY Mets | 18 | 21 | 12 | 36 | 12 |
| The Mets are slowing after a strong string of games; it’s very possible to catch Washington for second. | |||||||
| 13 |  |
Washington Nationals | 22 | 11 | 19 | 36 | 13 |
| Their run differential shows they aren’t this good; that should change once Strasburg and Storen get promoted in June. | |||||||
| 14 |  |
Florida Marlins | 14 | 18 | 25 | 34 | 14 |
| Daniels predicted that the Marlins would show signs of playing at an empty house; it appears that is so. | |||||||
| 15 |  |
Boston Red Sox | 16 | 12 | 29 | 34 | 15 |
| While the BoSox are looking better than a few weeks ago, they still have a long way to go. | |||||||
| 16 |  |
Atlanta Braves | 12 | 19 | 26 | 33 | 16 |
| Troy Glaus has turned it on, but the rest of the team is still struggling; especially Nate McLouth. | |||||||
| 17 |  |
LA Dodgers | 15 | 16 | 20 | 32 | 17 |
| Andre Ethier is setting the world on fire right now; unfortunately the pitching isn’t. | |||||||
| 18 |  |
Oakland Athletics | 17 | 14 | 11 | 30 | 18 |
| The A’s are slowly dropping behind the Rangers; still in a solid second. | |||||||
| 19 |  |
Colorado Rockies | 13 | 22 | 3 | 29 | 19 |
| The Rockies always start slow; can they continue the trend of second half turn-arounds? | |||||||
| 20 |  |
Milwaukee Brewers | 11 | 15 | 6 | 23 | 20 |
| The Starting Pitching is very Jeckyll and Hyde; they need more out of the bullpen too. | |||||||
| 21 |  |
Chicago Cubs | 10 | 10 | 18 | 23 | 21 |
| Can Starlin Castro turn the team around or has he been rushed like Corey Patterson and Felix Pie? | |||||||
| 22 |  |
Cleveland Indians | 6 | 6 | 23 | 18 | 22 |
| Grady Sizemore – Where are you? | |||||||
| 23 |  |
LA Angels | 9 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 23 |
| While we predicted that they weren’t going to be as good as the past few years, we didn’t expect them to be this bad. | |||||||
| 24 |  |
Seattle Mariners | 4 | 8 | 21 | 16 | 24 |
| Griffey was sleeping in the clubhouse; the rest of the teams been sleeping in the dugout. | |||||||
| 25 |  |
Chicago White Sox | 8 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 25 |
| Like their cross-town partners, they have been playing beneath their abilities. | |||||||
| 26 |  |
KC Royals | 2 | 5 | 30 | 15 | 26 |
| New manager; probably same results. | |||||||
| 27 |  |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 7 | 1 | 16 | 13 | 27 |
| The Pirates can’t score and can’t stop teams from scoring, yet they aren’t the worst team in their division. | |||||||
| 28 |  |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 28 |
| Kelly Johnson is cooling off after a hot start; he’s starting to fit in with the rest of the team. | |||||||
| 29 |  |
Houston Astros | 3 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 29 |
| 4-2 vs the Cardinals this season; 9-19 vs everyone else. | |||||||
| 30 |  |
Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 30 |
| Only 1 game separates the Orioles and Royals; pretty good after only winning 2 games in the first few weeks. | |||||||
If the playoffs started today…
| Playoffs Based on Record | Playoffs Based of Run Differential | ||
| Division | Team | Division | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| AL East | Rays | AL East | Rays |
| AL Central | Twins | AL Central | Twins |
| AL West | Rangers | AL West | Rangers |
| AL Wild Card | Yankees | AL Wild Card | Yankees |
| NL East | Phillies | NL East | Phillies |
| NL Central | Cardinals | NL Central | Cardinals |
| NL West | Padres | NL West | Padres |
| NL Wild Card | Nationals | NL Wild Card | Giants |
