Two titles will be on the line this Saturday night at Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Cyborg, in an event that is the last big one for Strikeforce before they embark on their wildly ambition Heavyweight Grand Prix. If we wanted to complain we might say that the double title dip means that we are only be treated to 4 main card attractions, but when you figure in that Sherdog.com will be streaming 6 additional fights through their website that argument loses much of its potency.
My main beef, and I’ll openly admit that I can be a hater, is the presence of Herschel Walker on the card. Not that I wouldn’t love it if he were to work his way up the ladder and actually earn his main card status, because I would. Instead we’re getting to see him stroll in on the back of his celebrity and have extremely soft balls pitched his way. Consider for a moment the fact that Scott Carson, his opponent, got his last of four career wins at WEC 1 then ask yourself just how badly the Strikeforce executives need Walker to triumph. In any case here is a match by match preview of the main card and don’t forget to join me tomorrow night at 10pm EST for live play by play action here at Inside Fights.
Nick Diaz [c] (23-7) vs. Evangelista Santos (18-13) for the Strikeforce Welterweight title
For a while it has been all too easy to snicker at Diaz as he overly hyped himself, referring to himself as the number 1 fighter in the world while the rest of the world remembers all too well his ho hum run in the UFC. This week he took to calling out Georges St. Pierre which may be a fight we would all love to see as Diaz has easily established himself as one of the top welterweights in the world, but is ultimately something of a punk move since there is no logical way for that match to be made in the near future. It’s less easy, however, to laugh at his post UFC record, 9-1 (and that no contest against Takanori Gomi due to a failed drug test) beating the likes of Frank Shamrock, Scott Smith and KJ Noons. Here he steps into the cage against Evangelista Cyborg, a man who posses less natural talent than he but who loves ugly brawls and knows how to use the.
Diaz is a staggering -500 favorite and while that number may make sense on paper I see this fight taking a different route. Cyborg is known for his brawling and Diaz will most likely be looking for that early on. If Diaz can neutralize his strength the way he did in his last outing against Noons then he should be able to ride it out to a decision victory. But, if Cyborg can keep him standing for the duration then Diaz is going to have trouble. Cyborg is much less polished in the art of boxing than Noons is and that will make life more difficult for Diaz. The champ has proven that his chin is made of steel but if Cyborg is able to work his way into a mount position then he should be able to ground and pound his way to victory.
Pick: Cyborg via 2nd Round TKO
Jacare Souza [c] (13-2) vs. Robbie Lawler (20-6) for the Strikeforce Middleweight title
Pretty much every MMA journalist alive has taken their shots at Strikeforce and their match making abilities. Case in point here in which Robbie Lawler, 2-2 in his last four fights moves up into title contention I guess because of his violent KO of Matt Lindland last month. Of course the reality of the situation is that Lawler is one of Strikeforce’s most entertaining fighters and one of their biggest draws, and since their plan to place the title vacated by Jake Shields on the oh so patriotic Tim Kennedy failed to pan out they see him as a worthy second choice. The upside to their booking here, and it is a big one, is the potential this fight provides as we get to see a deadly submission artist take on one of the most brutal strikers in the game.
This has to be the toughest matchup on the card to call (OK Walker/Carson is also tough but that is just because I can’t decide who stinks more). Both of these guys are rather spectacular and it is hard to see either one of them fall for the others old tricks. I certainly see this match going deep into the rounds, with an early Lawler KO the only way that doesn’t happen. Lawler has had seven title matches but has made it to the championship rounds only once, and that was a 4th round KO of Frank Trigg. Souza has had only one title bout in his career and that was the aforementioned marathon with Tim Kennedy that went the distance and won him the title he is now defending. A few of these rounds are sure to be dragged down by lots of dancing and paranoia but after Souza racks up a few early rounds Lawler will get desperate late and start swinging for the fences. His last two KOs have been awe inspiring and I expect this one to provide more of the same.
Pick: Lawler via 5th Round KO
Scott Carson (4-1) vs. Herschel Walker (1-0)
Perhaps you caught this story and perhaps you didn’t but I think it cuts to the core of what Herschel Walker is all about at this late stage in his athletic career. Monday during a press conference to promote his fight this weekend Walker said that he was considering a return to the NFL. And why wouldn’t he have thoughts like that, as far as he and Strikeforce are concerned he’s thriving at this MMA thing (one win over absolute nobody Greg Nagy) so a step back onto the gridiron seems to be the next logical step. Except of course for the fact that Roger Goodell isn’t going to mandate that all teams play their practice squad against him and that he’s 48 years old and the NFL is a league dominated by 20 somethings. So the best we can hope for here is for absolute nobody #2 Scott Carson to put an end to this insufferable ego trip.
The scouting report on Carson is limited. At 40 he’s no spring chicken himself and before returning to action last June he had been inactive for a decade. That fight in June saw him get TKO’d in the first round by the undefeated Lorenz Larkin. Walker’s one and only time out saw him out perform Nagy at every turn and then eventually pound him out in the 3rd round for a victory. Personally I wish Strikeforce would stick to former pro wrestlers when putting on freak show contests but for now the extra aged Walker will have to do. Unfortunately for them however I’m going to predict that this pet project goes the way of Bobby Lashley pet project and that Carson is able to find a hole in Walker’s still developing game.
Pick: Carson via 2nd Round Submission
Roger Gracie (3-0) vs. Trevor Prangley (23-6-1)
If Strikeforce is going to insist upon not feasting solely on UFC leftovers then bringing in guys who have star potential early in their career is a very wise move indeed. Take Roger Gracie for instance. Plucked straight from the world renowned Gracie family and with a dominating BJJ career behind him (he’s won the World Jiu-Jitsu Championship ten times) if he were to rack up a few more MMA wins he is the kind of guy they could build shows around. He made his North American MMA debut back in May and choked out former UFC heavyweight champion Kevin Randleman. Now they are throwing him ever stiffer competition in the form of Trevor Prangley.
We last saw Prangley at Shark Fights 13 where he looked to be fully in control of Keith Jardine but only squeaked out a split decision victory. Of course who hasn’t beaten Jardine as of late and in his last four Strikeforce bouts he is only 1-2-1 with that sole victory coming over Anthony Ruiz back in 2008. Most would also say that Prangley is one of those fighters who became old overnight and thus Father Time is also somebody he’ll have to contend with. As far as the match up itself is concerned Prangley is easily the better stand up boxer of the two but that portion of his game is not nearly as dangerous as Gracie’s ground game. If he hopes to pull off the upset here Prangley would be smart to keep his distance and work his jabs overtime racking up points in the process. So far in his early MMA lifespan Gracie has been able to submit top tiered combatants and I think here he’ll be able to keep that streak alive, assuming he’s able to close to gap and put his BJJ to good use.
Pick: Gracie via 2nd Round Submission
